No position
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $464.25
- Potential profit
- $464.25
- User PnL
- -$63.3
Polymarket Trader
15100899254
0xa83e44bf188f0daf4b68b2c7c4e8c13f77cfa920
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $268.23
- Realized PnL
- $67.33
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 10
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $181.03
- Potential payout
- $181.03
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $76.03
No position
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $22.02
- Potential payout
- $22.04
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 15-21?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $19.02
- Potential payout
- $19.02
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.02
No position
Will Solana reach $160 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $17
- Potential payout
- $17.02
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- -$0
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $15.01
- Potential payout
- $15.03
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $0.01
No position
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $13.05
- Potential payout
- $13.05
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.05
Yes position
Will Trump sign any Executive Order week of October 24?
Ends Oct 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11
- Potential profit
- $11
- User PnL
- -$7.26
Yes position
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24?
Ends Oct 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.54
- Potential profit
- $8.54
- User PnL
- -$7
No position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $1.11
- Potential payout
- $1.11
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.28
Yes position
NFL Underdog Parlay
Ends Oct 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.65
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.1
Yes position
Will anyone say "New York" or "New Yorker" 45+ times during 2nd NYC mayoral debate on October 22?
Ends Oct 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.89
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.86
Yes position
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.73
Yes position
Lighter FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.73
No position
Will the Government shutdown end by October 24?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.68
Yes position
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.67
No position
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.66
No position
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.61
No position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.53
Yes position
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.43
Yes position
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.33
Yes position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.33
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.29
Yes position
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.24
No position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.22
Yes position
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.21
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026?
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.2
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11?
Ends Jun 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.18
No position
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.18
No position
Will Base launch a token in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.17
No position
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.16
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 15-21?No 99.9% 19.02 shares
- Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?Yes 58% 181.03 shares
- Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?Yes 56% 125.63 shares
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 13?Yes 99.5% 17.09 shares
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12?Yes 99.7% 17.05 shares
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11?Yes 99% 18.18 shares
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10?Yes 99.7% 17.05 shares
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in June?No 99.6% 13.05 shares
- Will Solana reach $160 in June?No 99.9% 17.02 shares
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June?No 99.8% 22.04 shares
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?No 99.8% 15.03 shares
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 31?Yes 99.7% 13.04 shares