kmsyd777

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $0.88
Potential payout: $76.92
Potential profit: $76.04
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$0.12

Yes position

Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.43
Potential payout: $66.67
Potential profit: $66.23
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.57

Yes position

Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $0.66
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $61.84
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$0.34

Yes position

Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $45.24
Potential profit: $45.24
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.16
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $24.84
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.84

Yes position

Will India agree to stop buying Russian oil by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.82
Potential profit: $20.82
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 15.6%
Current value: $2.59
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $14.08
Multiplier: 6.43x
User PnL: $1.59

Yes position

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.29
Potential profit: $14.29
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will iPhone 17 cost $1,500 or more?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.29
Potential profit: $14.29
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

US national XRP reserve in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.5
Potential profit: $12.5
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

US national Solana reserve in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $11.11
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.53
Potential profit: $10.53
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.42
Potential profit: $10.42
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

US national Ethereum reserve in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.09
Potential profit: $9.09
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.09
Potential profit: $9.09
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.33
Potential profit: $8.33
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.85
Potential profit: $6.85
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.67
Potential profit: $6.67
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Anthropic acquired in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.88
Potential profit: $5.88
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.56
Potential profit: $5.56
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.56
Potential profit: $5.56
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Anthony Albanese be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election?

Ends May 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.35

Yes position

US-China trade deal before June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.3

Yes position

Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.25

Yes position

Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.9% on April 25?

Ends Apr 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.5

Yes position

Will Suez Canal traffic recover to pre-Houthi levels before July?

Ends Jul 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.24

Yes position

Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.19

Yes position

Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on India before June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.17

No position

Will Trump congratulate Canada election winner by Tuesday?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.71

No position

Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.14

Yes position

Will the Labor Party win by 30–39 seats?

Ends May 3, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.71

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.23

Yes position

Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $330b and $340b on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.03

No position

X Money launch in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4

Yes position

Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1.6%
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: $3.81

Yes position

Will Karoline Leavitt say "President" 70+ times during next White House press briefing?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.73

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.63

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?

Ends May 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.08

Yes position

Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.94

Yes position

Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.5

Yes position

Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.07

No position

Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Israel before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2

Yes position

Will Trump lower tariffs on China by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.7

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31?