Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$25
Polymarket Trader
lighttrader
0xa86142cb33e9bbea4dbf272abec120f474b820fe
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $44.24
- Realized PnL
- -$33.47
- Win rate
- 29.4%
- Open positions
- 22
- Closed positions
- 17
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $3.45
- Potential payout
- $459.85
- Potential profit
- $456.4
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$1.55
Yes position
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $3.17
- Potential payout
- $333.33
- Potential profit
- $330.17
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$1.83
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $116.67
- Potential profit
- $116.67
- User PnL
- -$7
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $8.94
- Potential payout
- $94.15
- Potential profit
- $85.21
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$9.89
Yes position
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $0.54
- Potential payout
- $63.06
- Potential profit
- $62.52
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$0.46
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.08
- Potential payout
- $55.56
- Potential profit
- $55.47
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$4.92
Yes position
Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $0.19
- Potential payout
- $55.56
- Potential profit
- $55.36
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$4.81
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 21%
- Current value
- $9.9
- Potential payout
- $47.17
- Potential profit
- $37.26
- Multiplier
- 4.76x
- User PnL
- -$1.42
Yes position
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $0.39
- Potential payout
- $45.45
- Potential profit
- $45.07
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$0.61
Yes position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $40.87
- Potential profit
- $40.87
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.9%
- Current value
- $1.13
- Potential payout
- $29.41
- Potential profit
- $28.28
- Multiplier
- 25.97x
- User PnL
- -$3.87
Yes position
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.04
- Potential payout
- $28.57
- Potential profit
- $28.53
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.96
Yes position
Iran leadership change by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $26.32
- Potential profit
- $26.32
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 29%
- Current value
- $7.25
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $17.75
- Multiplier
- 3.45x
- User PnL
- $4.25
Yes position
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $0.12
- Potential payout
- $22.73
- Potential profit
- $22.6
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$4.88
Yes position
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $1.85
- Potential payout
- $16.13
- Potential profit
- $14.27
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$3.15
Yes position
Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + NZF?
Ends Nov 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.1
- Potential payout
- $15.28
- Potential profit
- $15.18
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$0.9
Yes position
Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $0.14
- Potential payout
- $11.76
- Potential profit
- $11.63
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- -$1.86
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $0.68
- Potential payout
- $9.09
- Potential profit
- $8.41
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.32
Yes position
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.93
- Potential profit
- $8.93
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $6.25
- Potential payout
- $6.52
- Potential profit
- $0.27
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.25
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Something position
Nothing Ever Happens: February
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.1
Yes position
Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.57
Yes position
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.22
No position
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 The Genesis Invitational?
Ends Feb 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.39
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET
Ends Feb 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.08
Yes position
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on February 15?
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on February 15?
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will XRP reach $1.70 February 9-15?
Ends Feb 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will XRP reach $2.40 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Down position
XRP Up or Down - February 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET
Ends Feb 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.83
Yes position
Hillary Clinton charged by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$7
Yes position
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the next governing coalition of New Zealand include National + NZF?Yes 6.5% 15.28 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?Yes 6% 116.67 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes 9% 55.56 shares
- Iran leadership change by May 31?Yes 19% 26.32 shares
- Iran leadership change by April 30?Yes 12.2% 40.87 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Yes 2.5% 1,000 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yes 24% 47.17 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?Yes 0.5% 949.13 shares
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Yes 20% 94.15 shares
- Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes 1.1% 459.85 shares
- Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes 1.5% 333.33 shares
- Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?Yes 56% 8.93 shares