Yes position
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.2%
- Current value
- $46.2
- Potential payout
- $1.47K
- Potential profit
- $1.42K
- Multiplier
- 31.75x
- User PnL
- -$153.79
Polymarket Trader
DavosGOY
0xa8c7c83aa994e0bb717b0a61e8eec7f09f0b7e6d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $195.82
- Realized PnL
- $2.2K
- Win rate
- 58.3%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $703.52
- Potential profit
- $703.52
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Russian strike on Poland by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $2.86
- Potential payout
- $229.11
- Potential profit
- $226.24
- Multiplier
- 80.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.14
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.2%
- Current value
- $4.73
- Potential payout
- $215
- Potential profit
- $210.27
- Multiplier
- 45.45x
- User PnL
- -$15.27
Yes position
Grok 4.4 released by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $17.38
- Potential payout
- $165.53
- Potential profit
- $148.15
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$12.36
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Current value
- $78.37
- Potential payout
- $152.17
- Potential profit
- $73.8
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- $8.37
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 22%
- Current value
- $25.24
- Potential payout
- $114.72
- Potential profit
- $89.48
- Multiplier
- 4.55x
- User PnL
- $0.24
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $96.88
- Potential profit
- $96.88
- User PnL
- -$9.81
Yes position
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.5%
- Current value
- $16.39
- Potential payout
- $55.56
- Potential profit
- $39.17
- Multiplier
- 3.39x
- User PnL
- -$8.61
No position
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.7%
- Current value
- $2.36
- Potential payout
- $50.73
- Potential profit
- $48.37
- Multiplier
- 21.51x
- User PnL
- -$2.46
Yes position
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $2.29
- Potential payout
- $41.67
- Potential profit
- $39.38
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$2.71
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $812.54
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $562.57
No position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $298.73
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $208.88
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $115.95
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $95.98
No position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $86.21
Yes position
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.7
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: December
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.72
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: November
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.96
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: Airdrops Edition
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.66
No position
U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Tuesday?
Ends Dec 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.56
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.64
No position
Nothing Ever Happens: November
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.94
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.97
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Down position
XRP Up or Down - December 5, 2PM ET
Ends Dec 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Grok 4.20 released by January 9?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Nothing Ever Happens: Airdrops Edition
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.08
Yes position
Grok 4.20 released by January 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.8
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5.44
No position
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$9.71
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Yes 11% 54.55 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Yes 8.1% 500 shares
- Grok 4.4 released by June 30?Yes 18% 165.53 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Yes 9% 542.33 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?No 21.8% 114.72 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?Yes 3.6% 703.52 shares
- Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Yes 12% 41.67 shares
- Russian strike on Poland by June 30?Yes 2.2% 229.11 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No 99.8% 315.09 shares
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?No 99.3% 296.88 shares
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes 46% 152.17 shares
- Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?Yes 13.6% 1,466.8 shares