No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 65%
- Current value
- $90.53
- Potential payout
- $139.28
- Potential profit
- $48.75
- Multiplier
- 1.54x
- User PnL
- $28.37
Polymarket Trader
0xa8da...42f6
0xa8dad809780a13dea3dc02ad488696b2274642f6
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $275.41
- Realized PnL
- $221.33
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $65.49
- Potential payout
- $76.59
- Potential profit
- $11.11
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- -$4.21
No position
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.8%
- Current value
- $71.59
- Potential payout
- $73.24
- Potential profit
- $1.65
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- -$0.99
No position
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 76%
- Current value
- $47.8
- Potential payout
- $62.89
- Potential profit
- $15.09
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $1.26
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.54
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.1
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.75
No position
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.62
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.33
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.12
No position
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.82
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.53
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.33
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.88
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.81
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.38
No position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.3
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.22
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.05
No position
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.01
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.65
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.57
Yes position
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.55
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.13
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.12
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.33
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.12
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.08
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 99.1% 73.24 shares
- Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 94.1% 72.95 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 91% 76.59 shares
- Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31?No 74% 62.89 shares
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?No 44.6% 139.28 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 97% 44.44 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 97.5% 44.65 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 84.4% 34.51 shares
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?No 74.8% 52.02 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 87% 59.72 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?No 95% 73.04 shares
- Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31?No 94.6% 74.79 shares