Yes position
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $10
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1.99K
- Multiplier
- 200.00x
- User PnL
- -$83.13
Polymarket Trader
Brianm
0xa8daf6b29347eaf96bdc28b4785ee9c80a4ed488
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $246.12
- Realized PnL
- $549.78
- Win rate
- 62.5%
- Open positions
- 15
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $8.32
- Potential payout
- $1.11K
- Potential profit
- $1.1K
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$76.35
Yes position
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $5.39
- Potential payout
- $979.8
- Potential profit
- $974.41
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$39.77
Yes position
Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $100B at market close on IPO day?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $658.37
- Potential profit
- $658.37
- User PnL
- -$197.51
Yes position
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.7%
- Current value
- $16.36
- Potential payout
- $605.88
- Potential profit
- $589.52
- Multiplier
- 37.04x
- User PnL
- -$61.02
Yes position
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.1%
- Current value
- $86.05
- Potential payout
- $503.21
- Potential profit
- $417.16
- Multiplier
- 5.85x
- User PnL
- -$78.41
Yes position
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at >$8,000 in December?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 26.5%
- Current value
- $83.36
- Potential payout
- $314.58
- Potential profit
- $231.22
- Multiplier
- 3.77x
- User PnL
- $48.46
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $25
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $175
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $1
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $199
- Multiplier
- 200.00x
- User PnL
- -$45
Yes position
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $2.69
- Potential payout
- $125.74
- Potential profit
- $123.05
- Multiplier
- 46.73x
- User PnL
- -$2.92
Yes position
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$9
Yes position
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.39
- Potential profit
- $22.39
- User PnL
- -$2.02
Yes position
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $3.09
- Potential payout
- $21.28
- Potential profit
- $18.19
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- $1.81
Yes position
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20%
- Current value
- $4.06
- Potential payout
- $20.3
- Potential profit
- $16.24
- Multiplier
- 5.00x
- User PnL
- $0.81
Yes position
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.4%
- Current value
- $0.81
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $14.19
- Multiplier
- 18.52x
- User PnL
- -$1.14
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $455.82
Yes position
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37
Yes position
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.88
No position
Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for Finland by Feburary 1?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.75
No position
Will Jefferies Financial Group (JEF) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends Jan 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.8
Yes position
Will Reed Sheppard win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.23
Yes position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.48
Yes position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.92
No position
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.32
No position
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.3
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.29
Yes position
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.26
Yes position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.17
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.16
Yes position
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 75% and 100% on April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.03
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Joachim Trier win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.32
Yes position
Will Guillermo del Toro win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.46
Yes position
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 50% and 75% on April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.52
Yes position
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.9
Lakers position
NBA Playoffs: Lakers vs. Timberwolves (To Advance)
Ends May 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.01
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve on January 24, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.4
Yes position
Will George Russell win the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix?
Ends Apr 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.5
Yes position
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.5
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027?Yes 16% 20.3 shares
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Yes 9% 22.39 shares
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?Yes 4.5% 125.74 shares
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026?Yes 7% 533.45 shares
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes 3.6% 27.9 shares
- Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?Yes 30% 30 shares
- Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?No 20% 264.54 shares
- Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?No 18.1% 160 shares
- Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes 14% 181.82 shares
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?Yes 3.3% 179.8 shares
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026?Yes 5% 200.65 shares
- Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes 3.7% 1,197 shares