Polymarket Trader

agurets

0xa90ea765fd6ae21e3277d9f97e3ad6c149411400

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $11.92
Realized PnL: $149.15
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 17
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $11.5
Potential payout: $99.98
Potential profit: $88.48
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$7.2

Yes position

Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22
Potential profit: $22
User PnL: -$0.09

Yes position

Will Jerome Powell be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22
Potential profit: $22
User PnL: -$0.09

Yes position

Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22
Potential profit: $22
User PnL: -$0.09

Yes position

Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22
Potential profit: $22
User PnL: -$0.09

Yes position

Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22
Potential profit: $22
User PnL: -$0.09

Yes position

Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22
Potential profit: $22
User PnL: -$0.09

Yes position

Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22
Potential profit: $22
User PnL: -$0.09

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$1

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$0.03

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $19.97
Potential profit: $19.97
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Sung-Jae Im win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $11.2
Potential profit: $11.2
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.09

Yes position

Epstein client list released by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $0.12
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.88
Multiplier: 83.33x
User PnL: -$1.38

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 20?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

US recognize Somaliland by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 26.4%
Current value: $0.3
Potential payout: $1.14
Potential profit: $0.84
Multiplier: 3.79x
User PnL: $0.19

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $51.14

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.88

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $13.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.2

No position

Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.1

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?

Ends Mar 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.79

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.92

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.88

Yes position

Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?

Ends Mar 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.53

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 17?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.48

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in March 2026?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.58

Yes position

Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.38

No position

US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.3

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3

Yes position

Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026?

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.91

Yes position

Will CZ post 20-39 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?

Ends Mar 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.58

Yes position

Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be between 3.1% and 3.3%?

Ends Apr 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.54

Yes position

Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?

Ends Mar 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.83

Yes position

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.82

Yes position

Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.17

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?

Ends Jul 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.02

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 27?

Ends Mar 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.95

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in March 2026?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.92

Yes position

Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.72

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET

Down 1% 100 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET

Down 1% 100 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET

Up 4% 20 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET

Up 5% 20 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET

Up 20% 10 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET

Down 3% 100 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET

Up 3% 50 shares
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?

Yes 19% 84.99 shares
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?

Yes 17% 14.99 shares
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 20?

Yes 0.8% 5 shares
The Devil Wears Prada 2 vs. Michael Opening Weekend Box Office

The Devil Wears Prada 2 16% 20 shares
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 100m?

Yes 35% 15 shares