No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.5K
- User PnL
- -$5
Polymarket Trader
Nervous-master
0xa99a817dd71f6a77cdaa47acdc8d6341bfb70ac6
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $319.27
- Realized PnL
- $114.94
- Win rate
- 33.3%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 18
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $117.04
- Potential payout
- $807.14
- Potential profit
- $690.11
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- $4.04
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $202.23
- Potential payout
- $225.96
- Potential profit
- $23.73
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $22.61
Yes position
Will Trump shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $76.74
- Potential profit
- $76.74
- User PnL
- -$9
Yes position
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25.64
- Potential profit
- $25.64
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $99.04
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $40.72
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- User PnL
- $5.66
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.38
Yes position
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.39
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $0.32
Yes position
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be at least 450k?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.1
No position
Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.14
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.24
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.26
Yes position
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.49
No position
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.81
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.86
Yes position
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.88
No position
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.99
No position
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$14.38
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$14.41
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 79.5% 225.95 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?No 94% 192.25 shares
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Yes 14% 757.14 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 94.5% 111.61 shares
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Yes 14% 50 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?No 73% 136.99 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 89.6% 111.61 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?No 72.4% 55.27 shares
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Yes 54% 1.85 shares
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Yes 53% 103.77 shares
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Yes 71% 63.08 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?No 67% 34.93 shares