spaceloaf

Implied probability: 94.9%
Current value: $344.06
Potential payout: $362.74
Potential profit: $18.68
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: -$5.94

No position

Human moon landing in 2026?

Implied probability: 97.2%
Current value: $249.09
Potential payout: $256.4
Potential profit: $7.31
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.64

No position

Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $205.38
Potential payout: $215.05
Potential profit: $9.68
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $5.38

Yes position

Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.8–0.9%?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.67
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 1%+?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $151.68
Potential profit: $151.68
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.7–0.8%?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $143.87
Potential profit: $143.87
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.9–1.0%?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $135.38
Potential profit: $135.38
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $116.59
Potential profit: $116.59
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will voter turnout be 54-57% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $115.79
Potential profit: $115.79
User PnL: -$1

No position

Blue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026?

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $97.8
Potential payout: $115.74
Potential profit: $17.94
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: -$2.2

No position

Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.3%
Current value: $100.12
Potential payout: $106.17
Potential profit: $6.05
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.12

Yes position

Will Michael Foust win the Tallahassee mayoral election?

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $4
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $96
Multiplier: 25.00x
User PnL: -$1.9

Yes position

Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?

Implied probability: 37.5%
Current value: $37.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $62.5
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: -$16.5

Yes position

Will Daryl Parks win the Tallahassee mayoral election?

Implied probability: 31.4%
Current value: $31.35
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $68.65
Multiplier: 3.19x
User PnL: $20.26

Yes position

Will Jeremy Matlow win the Tallahassee mayoral election?

Implied probability: 21.6%
Current value: $20.09
Potential payout: $93.21
Potential profit: $73.13
Multiplier: 4.64x
User PnL: $6.78

No position

Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $76.92
Potential profit: $76.92
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $76.1
Potential profit: $76.1
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $75.98
Potential profit: $75.98
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will voter turnout be 60%+ in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $70.15
Potential profit: $70.15
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $60.95
Potential payout: $61.16
Potential profit: $0.21
User PnL: $0.95

Yes position

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.6–0.7%?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $60.74
Potential profit: $60.74
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $50.46
Potential payout: $51.07
Potential profit: $0.61
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.46

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $31.58
Potential profit: $31.58
User PnL: -$30

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.64K

Yes position

Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $140.4

Yes position

Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

Implied probability: 26.5%
Multiplier: 3.78x
User PnL: $29.21

Yes position

Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.24

No position

Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.57

No position

Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.3

Yes position

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9

Yes position

Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.97

No position

Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.62

No position

Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.39

Yes position

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.38

Yes position

Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.18

No position

Will Partido Popular (PP) win fewer than 50 seats in the 2026 Andalusia Regional Election?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.39

Yes position

Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.03

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET

Ends Apr 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.8

Yes position

Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

Implied probability: 22.3%
Multiplier: 4.49x
User PnL: $4.3

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.2

No position

Will Alex Borg be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 2026 Maltese general election?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.4

No position

Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.92

No position

Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.89

No position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.61

No position

Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.55

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%?