LBZero

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $7.72K
Potential payout: $8.17K
Potential profit: $453.54
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $790.69

No position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 88.4%
Current value: $728.46
Potential payout: $824.51
Potential profit: $96.06
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$57.23

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $15.98
Potential payout: $819.53
Potential profit: $803.55
Multiplier: 51.28x
User PnL: -$19.42

No position

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 94.7%
Current value: $643.56
Potential payout: $679.94
Potential profit: $36.38
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: -$6.86

No position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 78.6%
Current value: $475.85
Potential payout: $605.79
Potential profit: $129.94
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: -$80.88

Yes position

Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $22.34
Potential payout: $603.68
Potential profit: $581.34
Multiplier: 27.03x
User PnL: -$16.1

No position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 94.8%
Current value: $568.5
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $31.5
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $16.5

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $500.58
Potential payout: $565.63
Potential profit: $65.05
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$4.48

No position

Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 50.4%
Current value: $246.75
Potential payout: $489.2
Potential profit: $242.45
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: -$154.91

Yes position

Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $22.82
Potential payout: $414.92
Potential profit: $392.1
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$12.03

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

Implied probability: 50%
Current value: $201.42
Potential payout: $402.83
Potential profit: $201.42
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: -$86.75

No position

Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $398.75
Potential payout: $399.75
Potential profit: $1
User PnL: $20.67

No position

Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $199.09
Potential payout: $394.24
Potential profit: $195.15
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: -$117.34

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 19.7%
Current value: $75.68
Potential payout: $385.15
Potential profit: $309.47
Multiplier: 5.09x
User PnL: -$39.86

Yes position

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $205.79
Potential payout: $357.9
Potential profit: $152.11
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: -$39.07

No position

Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $138.28
Potential payout: $333.21
Potential profit: $194.93
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: -$14.99

No position

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Implied probability: 90.7%
Current value: $291.29
Potential payout: $321.33
Potential profit: $30.04
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: -$20.03

Yes position

Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $5.78
Potential payout: $321.19
Potential profit: $315.41
Multiplier: 55.56x
User PnL: $0.64

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 20.9%
Current value: $64.54
Potential payout: $309.55
Potential profit: $245.01
Multiplier: 4.80x
User PnL: -$41.6

No position

Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

Implied probability: 49.5%
Current value: $145.63
Potential payout: $294.2
Potential profit: $148.57
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: -$99.87

No position

NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99%
Current value: $279.62
Potential payout: $282.58
Potential profit: $2.97
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $16.01

Yes position

Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $4.34
Potential payout: $280.05
Potential profit: $275.71
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: -$5.94

No position

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $145.47
Potential payout: $253
Potential profit: $107.52
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: -$17.76

No position

Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?

Implied probability: 98.4%
Current value: $247.74
Potential payout: $251.9
Potential profit: $4.16
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $18.55

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.03K

No position

Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.87K

No position

US forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.46K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.79K

Yes position

Trump out as President by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.77K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?

Ends Oct 29, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.51K

No position

Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14?

Ends Apr 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.31K

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.22K

Yes position

Will Trump release more Epstein files before August?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.18K

Yes position

Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.15K

Yes position

Xi Jinping out in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.13K

Yes position

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Multiplier: 10.58x
User PnL: $1.12K

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.07K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.04K

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 6.7%
Multiplier: 15.04x
User PnL: $1.04K

Yes position

Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.03K

Yes position

Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.01K

Yes position

Another US military action against Iran before August?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1K

Yes position

Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $962.35

No position

Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $938.07

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $922.42

No position

Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $911.98

Yes position

Will Trump be impeached in 2025?