No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $1.18K
- Potential payout
- $1.4K
- Potential profit
- $217.15
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $62.98
Polymarket Trader
Blue-moon
0xa9dd5a6eced2c44e4e51f63f8a24a156958e6d2e
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.08K
- Realized PnL
- $7.14K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $1.1K
- Potential payout
- $1.1K
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $22.22
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $798
- Potential payout
- $798
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $18.75
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $625.91
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $619.95
No position
US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?
Ends Feb 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $507.27
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $457.17
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $446.98
No position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $425.57
No position
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $421
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $399
No position
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $361.89
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $291.43
No position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $227.77
No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $211.91
No position
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $200.2
No position
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $198.57
No position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $195.52
No position
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?
Ends Feb 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $192.7
No position
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $192.28
No position
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?
Ends Nov 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $185.85
No position
Iran leadership change by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $180.67
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $169.39
No position
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?
Ends Nov 7, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $165.89
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $160.22
Yes position
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $151.46
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $147.01
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Yes 99.8% 152.33 shares
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Yes 99.8% 174.72 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?No 98.8% 173.08 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 81% 7 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?No 92% 100 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?No 92% 671 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?No 93% 79 shares
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?No 94% 99 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?No 82% 398 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?No 96% 398 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?No 97.6% 57.04 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?No 91% 398 shares