Polymarket Trader

DumbOracle

0xa9ecc654e83991dce406032bc504ab78ae2c57d5

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $16.9K
Realized PnL: $0
Win rate: Unavailable
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 0
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $6.52K
Potential payout: $7.36K
Potential profit: $846.61
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $8.39

No position

Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $1.92K
Potential payout: $1.94K
Potential profit: $23.29
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $27.3

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $1.86K
Potential payout: $1.86K
Potential profit: $2.79
User PnL: $16.42

No position

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $998.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1.5
User PnL: $28.5

No position

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $865
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $135
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $945.21
Potential profit: $945.21
User PnL: -$690

Yes position

Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $12.97
Potential payout: $786.35
Potential profit: $773.38
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: $1.38

No position

Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $746.02
Potential payout: $747.14
Potential profit: $1.12
User PnL: $90.85

No position

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $664.09
Potential payout: $742
Potential profit: $77.91
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $128.85

No position

Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $704.35
Potential payout: $705.05
Potential profit: $0.71
User PnL: $47.35

Yes position

Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 6.1%
Current value: $33.32
Potential payout: $550.7
Potential profit: $517.38
Multiplier: 16.53x
User PnL: $1.34

No position

Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $463.61
Potential payout: $501.2
Potential profit: $37.59
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $7.52

No position

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $361.34
Potential payout: $392.76
Potential profit: $31.42
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $11.78

No position

Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $368.8
Potential payout: $370.84
Potential profit: $2.04
User PnL: $18.8

Yes position

Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $332.83
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 32.4%
Current value: $100.97
Potential payout: $311.64
Potential profit: $210.67
Multiplier: 3.09x
User PnL: $46.27

Yes position

Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.75
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $299.25
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.75

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84.1%
Current value: $252.15
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $47.85
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $0.15

No position

Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $297.3
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $2.7
User PnL: $15.3

Yes position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $267
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $33
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: -$3

No position

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $223.67
Potential payout: $288.61
Potential profit: $64.94
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: -$0.83

Yes position

Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.36
Potential payout: $242.73
Potential profit: $242.37
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$1.12

Yes position

Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

Ends Sep 20, 2026

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $25.87
Potential payout: $235.18
Potential profit: $209.31
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$53.49

No position

Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.9%
Current value: $227.28
Potential payout: $232.27
Potential profit: $4.99
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $5.46

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No closed positions returned for this trader.

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026?

No 94% 5 shares
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

No 88% 34.09 shares
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?

No 77% 100 shares
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?

No 92.2% 108.46 shares
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

No 91% 36.87 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 97.6% 204.92 shares
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

No 0.3% 64.93 shares
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?

No 98.1% 509.71 shares
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

No 7.7% 64.94 shares
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?

No 94% 300 shares
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?

No 98% 500 shares
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?

No 98% 612.4 shares