Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $176.19K
- Potential profit
- $176.19K
- User PnL
- -$16.19K
Polymarket Trader
novv25
0xa9fe4929d4ea1525ca03bd0ff68ea1fbf9e7f135
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $43.62K
- Realized PnL
- $142.45K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $11.91K
- Potential payout
- $103.53K
- Potential profit
- $91.62K
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$19.41K
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $9.09K
- Potential payout
- $67.33K
- Potential profit
- $58.24K
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$7.3K
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $499.86
- Potential payout
- $52.62K
- Potential profit
- $52.12K
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$6.11K
Yes position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $5.98K
- Potential payout
- $44.33K
- Potential profit
- $38.35K
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$9.96K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $12.07K
- Potential payout
- $27.74K
- Potential profit
- $15.67K
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- -$2.32K
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $70.81
- Potential payout
- $20.23K
- Potential profit
- $20.16K
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$6.08K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $807.69
- Potential payout
- $8.5K
- Potential profit
- $7.69K
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$1.47K
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.3%
- Current value
- $211.56
- Potential payout
- $6.41K
- Potential profit
- $6.2K
- Multiplier
- 30.30x
- User PnL
- -$451.12
Yes position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $613.77
- Potential payout
- $5.34K
- Potential profit
- $4.72K
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$610.55
Yes position
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $266.82
- Potential payout
- $4.1K
- Potential profit
- $3.84K
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$11.36
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $4K
- User PnL
- -$1.52K
Yes position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.6%
- Current value
- $88.18
- Potential payout
- $3.39K
- Potential profit
- $3.3K
- Multiplier
- 38.46x
- User PnL
- -$55.32
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 40%
- Current value
- $879.48
- Potential payout
- $2.2K
- Potential profit
- $1.32K
- Multiplier
- 2.50x
- User PnL
- -$188.52
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?
Ends Sep 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 31.5%
- Current value
- $508.17
- Potential payout
- $1.61K
- Potential profit
- $1.11K
- Multiplier
- 3.17x
- User PnL
- -$176.83
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Current value
- $330.02
- Potential payout
- $1.53K
- Potential profit
- $1.2K
- Multiplier
- 4.65x
- User PnL
- -$271.49
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $2.78
- Potential payout
- $1.11K
- Potential profit
- $1.11K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$197.22
Yes position
Iran Nuke before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.6%
- Current value
- $75.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $924.5
- Multiplier
- 13.25x
- User PnL
- -$44.5
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 28.5%
- Current value
- $200.45
- Potential payout
- $703.59
- Potential profit
- $503.14
- Multiplier
- 3.51x
- User PnL
- $73.81
Yes position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $2.44
- Potential payout
- $325.83
- Potential profit
- $323.38
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$35.52
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $0.86
- Potential payout
- $246.05
- Potential profit
- $245.19
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$108.18
Yes position
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.2%
- Current value
- $10.91
- Potential payout
- $118.56
- Potential profit
- $107.66
- Multiplier
- 10.87x
- User PnL
- $0.91
Yes position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $4.25
- Potential payout
- $56.68
- Potential profit
- $52.43
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$9.92
Yes position
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.9
- Potential profit
- $3.9
- User PnL
- -$0.83
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $95,000 in November?
Ends Dec 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.22K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.32K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.1K
No position
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.55K
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November?
Ends Dec 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.5K
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 in November?
Ends Dec 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.47K
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.95K
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $3,000 in November?
Ends Dec 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.09K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.94K
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.93K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.69K
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.45K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.12K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.03K
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in November?
Ends Dec 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.98K
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.91K
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.46K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.63K
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.19K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $885.7
No position
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in November?
Ends Dec 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $678.8
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- User PnL
- $529.7
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $420.5
No position
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $418.56
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Yes 14% 1,797.21 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Yes 13% 510 shares
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June?Yes 4.5% 885.53 shares
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June?Yes 4.7% 74.47 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 51% 3,021.57 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 44% 59.3 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 16% 49,953.44 shares
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June?Yes 4.1% 2,431.49 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 52% 338.84 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 17% 356.6 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Yes 19% 138.47 shares
- Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026?Yes 6% 1,866.67 shares