No position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $185.09
- Potential payout
- $1.12K
- Potential profit
- $936.69
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- $19.9
Polymarket Trader
0xAa3A46A1DA050ef359f7A126ab3565312808E29a-1771943647735
0xaa3a46a1da050ef359f7a126ab3565312808e29a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $750.49
- Realized PnL
- $1.35K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 16
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $840
- Potential profit
- $840
- User PnL
- -$42
Yes position
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $1.3
- Potential payout
- $651.74
- Potential profit
- $650.44
- Multiplier
- 500.00x
- User PnL
- -$23.7
Yes position
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 22%
- Current value
- $122.69
- Potential payout
- $557.7
- Potential profit
- $435
- Multiplier
- 4.55x
- User PnL
- $22.69
Yes position
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $318.38
- Potential payout
- $553.71
- Potential profit
- $235.33
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- $30.45
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $479.08
- Potential profit
- $479.08
- User PnL
- -$45
Yes position
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $41.47
- Potential payout
- $394.92
- Potential profit
- $353.46
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$36.53
Yes position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $357.14
- Potential profit
- $357.14
- User PnL
- -$25
No position
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $288.08
- Potential profit
- $288.08
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.13
- Potential payout
- $257.2
- Potential profit
- $257.07
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$9.87
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $27.78
- Potential payout
- $222.22
- Potential profit
- $194.44
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$32.22
Yes position
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $219.31
- Potential profit
- $219.31
- User PnL
- -$23
Yes position
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $118.06
- Potential profit
- $118.06
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17%
- Current value
- $17.15
- Potential payout
- $101.16
- Potential profit
- $84.01
- Multiplier
- 5.90x
- User PnL
- -$17.85
Yes position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.5%
- Current value
- $36.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $63.5
- Multiplier
- 2.74x
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $166.79
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $152.1
Pistons position
Cavaliers vs. Pistons
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $112
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $95.61
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $94.05
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET
Ends Apr 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.53
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.18
Yes position
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66.35
Yes position
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship?
Ends May 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.95
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
Ends Apr 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.08
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $45.95
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET
Ends Apr 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.89
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET
Ends Apr 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.6
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET
Ends Apr 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.87
Yes position
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- $33.74
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET
Ends Apr 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.61
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET
Ends Apr 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.62
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET
Ends Apr 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.27
Yes position
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 22?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.25
Yes position
Will 6–7 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $19.47
Yes position
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.94
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET
Ends Apr 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.65
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.36
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET
Ends Apr 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.78
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 1.3% 106.55 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Yes 0.2% 307.69 shares
- Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m?Yes 0.5% 200 shares
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Yes 7% 357.14 shares
- Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No 90% 28.79 shares
- Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No 66% 28.79 shares
- Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No 53.4% 34.61 shares
- Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No 52% 34.62 shares
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes 52% 36.92 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 19% 5.26 shares
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2?Down 10% 10 shares
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes 52% 553.71 shares