Yes position
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.58K
- Potential profit
- $6.58K
- User PnL
- -$15.73
Polymarket Trader
willsom
0xaa99a6c279d34492683db6ff1818aa1f8485dbbf
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $16.11K
- Realized PnL
- $26.18K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Minnesota use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.8%
- Current value
- $5.17K
- Potential payout
- $5.29K
- Potential profit
- $116.35
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $448.17
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $275.6
- Potential payout
- $3.47K
- Potential profit
- $3.19K
- Multiplier
- 12.58x
- User PnL
- -$227.44
Yes position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $285
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $2.72K
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$283.05
No position
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 82%
- Current value
- $1.9K
- Potential payout
- $2.32K
- Potential profit
- $417.24
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $356.39
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $160
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1.84K
- Multiplier
- 12.50x
- User PnL
- -$120
Yes position
Will North Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Current value
- $1.89K
- Potential payout
- $1.96K
- Potential profit
- $67.51
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $157.55
No position
US x Iran meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.95K
- Potential profit
- $1.95K
- User PnL
- -$721.5
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.92K
- Potential profit
- $1.92K
- User PnL
- -$532.69
No position
Will New Jersey use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.6%
- Current value
- $1.62K
- Potential payout
- $1.73K
- Potential profit
- $110.67
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $140.34
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.7K
- Potential profit
- $1.7K
- User PnL
- -$73.75
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.66K
- Potential profit
- $1.66K
- User PnL
- -$262.43
Yes position
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Current value
- $616.84
- Potential payout
- $1.52K
- Potential profit
- $906.21
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- $79
No position
Will "Canada" or "Canadian" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.2K
- Potential profit
- $1.2K
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
Ends Aug 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $1K
- Potential payout
- $1.14K
- Potential profit
- $142.91
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $112.85
No position
Will Nebraska use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $1.08K
- Potential payout
- $1.13K
- Potential profit
- $51.07
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $97.63
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.3%
- Current value
- $89.85
- Potential payout
- $1.08K
- Potential profit
- $992.71
- Multiplier
- 12.05x
- User PnL
- $2.17
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $997.71
- Potential payout
- $1.07K
- Potential profit
- $69.36
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $68.43
No position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $1K
- Potential payout
- $1.01K
- Potential profit
- $7.58
- User PnL
- $260.07
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$743
No position
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$87
No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 25, 2026?
Ends Apr 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $999.99
- User PnL
- -$55
No position
Trump weaponization fund blocked by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $999.99
- User PnL
- -$340
No position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $14.5
- Potential payout
- $999.98
- Potential profit
- $985.48
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- -$305.49
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.76K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.58K
Yes position
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.74K
Yes position
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20?
Ends Apr 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.5K
No position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.41K
Yes position
Major US official out by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.37K
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.17K
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by March 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.05K
Yes position
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?
Ends Feb 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.03K
Yes position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $999.88
No position
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $975
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $958
Yes position
Canada recession before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $902.26
No position
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $865.94
Yes position
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 37.8%
- Multiplier
- 2.65x
- User PnL
- $801.77
Yes position
Will Ilhan Omar applaud during Trump's State of the Union?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $781.89
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $775.77
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $690.08
No position
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?
Ends Mar 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $679.99
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $664
No position
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $644
Yes position
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $619.98
Yes position
James Comey arrested by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $609.87
No position
Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $599.59
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?No 56.7% 600 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 64% 100 shares
- Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?Yes 54% 100 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?No 15% 234.61 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?No 18.7% 106.77 shares
- Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No 56.3% 398.11 shares
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No 8.9% 713.99 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?No 11.3% 597.35 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?No 11.3% 602.65 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Yes 54% 100 shares
- Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?No 36% 1,000 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?No 16.6% 1,200 shares