Polymarket Trader

imurvariance

@lappelduvideeth

0xaa9acd637320b0e2ccf170fe0335ab6a89f1a377

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $5.12
Realized PnL: $7K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $5.12
Potential payout: $10.24K
Potential profit: $10.23K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$87

Yes position

Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?

Ends Dec 19, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.8K
Potential profit: $9.8K
User PnL: -$297

Yes position

Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-07?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.93K
Potential profit: $1.93K
User PnL: -$1K

No position

Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.82K
Potential profit: $1.82K
User PnL: -$528.87

No position

Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times during call with Service Members on November 27?

Ends Nov 27, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.69K
Potential profit: $1.69K
User PnL: -$621.06

Yes position

Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.52K
Potential profit: $1.52K
User PnL: -$500

Yes position

Will Powell say "Job" 15+ times during April press conference?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.5K
User PnL: -$1K

Yes position

Will Powell say "Median" during January press conference?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.49K
Potential profit: $1.49K
User PnL: -$686

Yes position

Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.25K
Potential profit: $1.25K
User PnL: -$739.47

No position

Will Trump say "Thanksgiving" 5+ times during call with Service Members on November 27?

Ends Nov 27, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.04K
Potential profit: $1.04K
User PnL: -$340.03

Yes position

Will the fight go the distance?

Ends Dec 19, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $900
Potential profit: $900
User PnL: -$207

No position

Will Keir Starmer say "Christmas" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?

Ends Dec 24, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $800
Potential profit: $800
User PnL: -$128

No position

Will the Monad public sale commitments be less than $400M?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $700.01
Potential profit: $700.01
User PnL: -$621.48

Yes position

Will MrBeast hit 460 Million subscribers by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $686.92
Potential profit: $686.92
User PnL: -$539.89

Yes position

Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $681.57
Potential profit: $681.57
User PnL: -$545.26

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?

Ends Nov 25, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $651.46
Potential profit: $651.46
User PnL: -$33.68

No position

Will Trump say "America" or "American" 8+ at the Turkey Pardon on Tuesday?

Ends Nov 25, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $560.27
Potential profit: $560.27
User PnL: -$326

No position

Will Trump say "Biden" during call with Service Members on November 27?

Ends Nov 27, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $531.52
Potential profit: $531.52
User PnL: -$162.32

No position

Will Trump say "Thank" or "Thanks" 20+ times at the Turkey Pardon on Tuesday?

Ends Nov 25, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $521.86
Potential profit: $521.86
User PnL: -$214.44

No position

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $512.82
Potential profit: $512.82
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will Snowflake say "Competition" during earnings call?

Ends Nov 26, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $499.99
Potential profit: $499.99
User PnL: -$218

Yes position

Will Metamask daily perps revenue hit $100k in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $499.22
Potential profit: $499.22
User PnL: -$368.01

No position

Will Trump say "Affordability" or "Affordable" at the Turkey Pardon on Tuesday?

Ends Nov 25, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $399.99
Potential profit: $399.99
User PnL: -$201.63

Yes position

Will Dell say "Confidence" during earnings call?

Ends Nov 25, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $389
Potential profit: $389
User PnL: -$262.73

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14?

Ends Apr 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $956.94

Yes position

Will Walmart say "SNAP" during earnings call?

Ends Nov 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $585.66

No position

Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during the Brian Kilmeade Show on November 21?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $483.45

Yes position

Will Keir Starmer say "Emergency" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?

Ends Nov 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $448.77

Yes position

Will Powell say "Job" 15+ times during January press conference?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $447.1

No position

Up Only podcast released by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $362.83

Yes position

Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $338.24

Yes position

Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $8 million?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $288.4

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $278.63

No position

Will Keir Starmer say "Gentleman" or "Lady" 6+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?

Ends Nov 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $262.3

Over position

Drake Maye: Rushing Yards O/U 29.5

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $246.41

Yes position

Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-07?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $246.27

Yes position

Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-01?

Ends Nov 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $244.68

Yes position

Will Powell say "Meeting" 9+ times during October press conference?

Ends Oct 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $240.79

No position

Will Keir Starmer say "United Kingdom" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?

Ends Nov 12, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $188.66

No position

Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during "60 Minutes" on November 2?

Ends Nov 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $180.77

No position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $175.53

Yes position

Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-01?

Ends Nov 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $166.67

No position

Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $160

No position

Will Trump say "Chicago" during call with Service Members on November 27?

Ends Nov 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $156.37

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $148.94

No position

Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the private dinner on November 12?

Ends Nov 12, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132

Yes position

Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 million?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $130.77

Yes position

Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $130.34

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?

Yes 59% 1,253.34 shares
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 0.9% 3,933.33 shares
Will Pudgy Penguins floor price dip to 2 ETH before 2027?

No 74% 50 shares
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 0.9% 6,303.33 shares
Will Powell say "Job" 15+ times during April press conference?

Yes 59.9% 200 shares
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14?

Yes 37% 1,518.95 shares
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-07?

Yes 45% 1,111.11 shares
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-07?

Yes 61% 819.67 shares
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-07?

Yes 67% 746.27 shares
Will Powell say "Percent" 20+ times during March press conference?

Yes 80.8% 247.47 shares
Will Pudgy Penguins floor price dip to 2 ETH before 2027?

No 77.6% 322.17 shares
Will Starmer say "Conservative" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?

Yes 81% 96 shares