Polymarket Trader

lasthope

@lukedco

0xaa9c15bafe458c52db190efd699f1d15d882ae1e

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $2.43K
Realized PnL: $1.9K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 10
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 20?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $415
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $585
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: $105

No position

Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $795
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $205
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $65

No position

Will Cape Verde reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $996.49
Potential payout: $999.99
Potential profit: $3.5
User PnL: $6.5

No position

Will Cape Verde reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $98.55
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $1.45
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.85

Yes position

Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $93.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $6.5
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $0.5

Austria position

Spain vs. Austria: Team to Advance

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $90
Potential profit: $90
User PnL: -$10.8

Yes position

Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 33.5%
Current value: $10.05
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $19.95
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: -$1.05

Yes position

Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $10.09
Potential payout: $19.99
Potential profit: $9.89
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: $0.7

No position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 52.5%
Current value: $5.25
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $4.75
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: -$2.95

Yes position

Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $3.47
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $1.53
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: -$0.08

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $880

Yes position

Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $237.82

Yes position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: $171.79

No position

Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-04-25?

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $86.62

Yes position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.9%
Multiplier: 20.62x
User PnL: $70

No position

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70

No position

Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38

No position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33

No position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.75

Yes position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.44

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.46

Yes position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 77.6%
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $22.88

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.95

No position

Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18

Yes position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18

No position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18

No position

Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16

Yes position

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16

Yes position

Will Bayern München win on 2025-10-04?

Ends Oct 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.5

No position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.48

Yes position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: $15.01

No position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.7

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.41

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Spain vs. Austria: Team to Advance

Austria 12% 90 shares
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 84% 100 shares
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 37% 30 shares
Will DR Congo reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 89% 100 shares
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 84% 10 shares
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 89% 50 shares
Will England win on 2026-06-17?

Yes 58% 17 shares
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?

Yes 71% 5 shares
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 5.3% 190 shares
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 79% 10 shares
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 88% 20 shares
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 93% 11 shares