Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $12.64K
- Potential payout
- $148.75K
- Potential profit
- $136.11K
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$10.5K
Polymarket Trader
SlenderMan
0xab19716584931d81cd9e7763402673a64baa4876
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $182.51K
- Realized PnL
- $633.81K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 15
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $92.06K
- Potential payout
- $101.73K
- Potential profit
- $9.66K
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $5.04K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Current value
- $18.21K
- Potential payout
- $18.65K
- Potential profit
- $438.32
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $578.03
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $15.32K
- Potential payout
- $16.05K
- Potential profit
- $730.05
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $558.32
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.4%
- Current value
- $10.42K
- Potential payout
- $10.92K
- Potential profit
- $507.96
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $202.09
No position
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $7.67K
- Potential payout
- $7.73K
- Potential profit
- $57.97
- User PnL
- $2.26K
No position
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 69.5%
- Current value
- $5.24K
- Potential payout
- $7.54K
- Potential profit
- $2.3K
- Multiplier
- 1.44x
- User PnL
- $5.15
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 73%
- Current value
- $4.31K
- Potential payout
- $5.9K
- Potential profit
- $1.59K
- Multiplier
- 1.37x
- User PnL
- $564.99
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $5.64K
- Potential payout
- $5.69K
- Potential profit
- $48.34
- User PnL
- $504.83
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80%
- Current value
- $4.33K
- Potential payout
- $5.41K
- Potential profit
- $1.08K
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- $292.61
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $4.94K
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $57.5
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $17.5
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.8%
- Current value
- $1.28K
- Potential payout
- $1.46K
- Potential profit
- $178.42
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $19.66
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 53%
- Current value
- $332.11
- Potential payout
- $626.62
- Potential profit
- $294.51
- Multiplier
- 1.89x
- User PnL
- $18.8
No position
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $112.46
- Potential payout
- $113.48
- Potential profit
- $1.02
- User PnL
- $32.16
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.3%
- Current value
- $5.49
- Potential payout
- $5.76
- Potential profit
- $0.27
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.97
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $181.51K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.3K
Yes position
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Ends Apr 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $32.16K
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.2K
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.81K
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.81K
Yes position
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.64K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $19.87K
No position
Will Portugal win on 2025-11-13?
Ends Nov 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.69K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.61K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.18K
No position
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.14K
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.73K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $17.16K
No position
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.11K
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.47K
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.06K
No position
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.44K
No position
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.41K
$80k position
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $90k first?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.97K
No position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.67K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.34K
No position
Will Wolves win on 2025-09-20?
Ends Sep 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.9K
Yes position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.61K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No 86.4% 1,456.48 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?No 98.5% 3,586.15 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?No 95.2% 8,211.66 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 17% 2,015.39 shares
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?No 99.9% 28.17 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?No 92.9% 893.79 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?No 91.9% 699.96 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?No 92% 399.57 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 23.9% 10,681.08 shares
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?No 89% 166.74 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?Yes 4% 7,384 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No 99.4% 689 shares