Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 19.7%
- Current value
- $58.95
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $241.05
- Multiplier
- 5.09x
- User PnL
- -$31.05
Polymarket Trader
amazingavacado
0xab7ec741909af31daaecc582d3a4c10511f42a96
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $140.91
- Realized PnL
- $2.07K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 21
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $2.25
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $297.75
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$1.35
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $13.35
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $286.65
- Multiplier
- 22.47x
- User PnL
- $6.45
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 14%
- Current value
- $41.85
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $258.15
- Multiplier
- 7.17x
- User PnL
- -$27.15
No position
Will "The Running Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 17m?
Ends Nov 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $203
- Potential profit
- $203
- User PnL
- -$41.61
No position
Will Dolby Laboratories (DLB) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends Nov 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $149.99
- Potential profit
- $149.99
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will the New York City Mayor election have the largest Democratic margin of victory?
Ends Oct 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $126
- Potential profit
- $126
- User PnL
- -$53.92
Yes position
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$23.59
Yes position
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$14
Yes position
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the third best domestic opening weekend in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro lose the NOF1.ai competition?
Ends Nov 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $66.33
- Potential profit
- $66.33
- User PnL
- -$21.92
No position
Grokipedia released by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$1.8
Yes position
Will Revolut launch their own stablecoin in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $26
- Potential profit
- $26
- User PnL
- -$4.42
No position
TikTok sale announced in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $25
- User PnL
- -$10.5
No position
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Current value
- $24.51
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $0.49
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.61
Yes position
Atlas global browser market share 1%+ on October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$1.4
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$5.6
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.45
- Potential profit
- $16.45
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $15
- User PnL
- -$2.25
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$5.6
Yes position
Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition?
Ends Oct 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.5
- Potential profit
- $6.5
- User PnL
- -$2.01
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 20 minutes?
Ends Oct 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $781.34
Yes position
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?
Ends Oct 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $229.46
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?
Ends Oct 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $189.37
Yes position
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $175.18
Yes position
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election by more than 30%?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $95.12
Yes position
Will the California Proposition 50 referendum have the largest Democratic margin of victory?
Ends Oct 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.53
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?
Ends Oct 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.44
Yes position
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56
Yes position
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the second best domestic opening weekend in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51
Yes position
Will Catherine Connolly win by 20% or more?
Ends Oct 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.52
Yes position
Will Apple be the second most valuable company on October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.7
No position
Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.54
No position
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?
Ends Dec 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $31.2
Yes position
Will OpenAI’s GPT 5 lose the NOF1.ai competition?
Ends Nov 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.49
No position
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24?
Ends Oct 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.41
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?
Ends Oct 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.36
Yes position
Will "Now You See Me: Now You Don't" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m?
Ends Nov 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.28
No position
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.18
No position
TikTok sale announced by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.7
Senate position
Which chamber will move first on a funding bill?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16
No position
U.S. agrees to give Saudi Arabia security guarantee by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.52
Yes position
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 22 minutes?
Ends Oct 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.77
No position
Trump vetoes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.39
Yes position
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 11, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Yes 5% 83.33 shares
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Yes 6% 83.33 shares
- Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31?Yes 69% 852 shares
- Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31?Yes 77% 178 shares
- Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31?Yes 77% 44 shares
- Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31?Yes 77% 255 shares
- Israel strike on the West Bank by December 31?Yes 76.5% 375 shares
- Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?No 54% 11 shares
- Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?No 45% 5 shares
- Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?No 68.6% 30 shares
- Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?No 69% 20 shares
- Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be greater than 157m?No 22% 128.53 shares