No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.12K
- Potential profit
- $13.12K
- User PnL
- -$225.98
Polymarket Trader
Phantomassik
0xab97ac01d48d1113afd08b12fd03a80f9f31054b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $115.37
- Realized PnL
- $483.54
- Win rate
- 90.9%
- Open positions
- 21
- Closed positions
- 22
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.3%
- Current value
- $59.81
- Potential payout
- $2.6K
- Potential profit
- $2.54K
- Multiplier
- 43.48x
- User PnL
- -$132.62
No position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.24K
- Potential profit
- $2.24K
- User PnL
- -$60
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.2%
- Current value
- $45.39
- Potential payout
- $1.09K
- Potential profit
- $1.05K
- Multiplier
- 24.10x
- User PnL
- -$74.6
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $866.67
- Potential profit
- $866.67
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $554.77
- Potential profit
- $554.77
- User PnL
- -$36
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $312.5
- Potential profit
- $312.5
- User PnL
- -$50
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $142.86
- Potential profit
- $142.86
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $133.29
- Potential profit
- $133.29
- User PnL
- -$43.57
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $125
- Potential profit
- $125
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $9.45
- Potential payout
- $90
- Potential profit
- $80.55
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$14.75
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $84.76
- Potential profit
- $84.76
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $84.46
- Potential profit
- $84.46
- User PnL
- -$10.61
Yes position
Will Sentient launch a token in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $65.79
- Potential profit
- $65.79
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Danil "donk" Kryshkovets win the HLTV Player of the Year award?
Ends Jan 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $53.04
- Potential profit
- $53.04
- User PnL
- -$5
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $49.68
- Potential profit
- $49.68
- User PnL
- -$9.94
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $32.85
- Potential profit
- $32.85
- User PnL
- -$19.71
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.92
- Potential profit
- $15.92
- User PnL
- -$9.86
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $0.72
- Potential payout
- $6.25
- Potential profit
- $5.53
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$0.28
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $149.93
Demoor position
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor
Ends Dec 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $135.28
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $69.05
Yes position
Lighter Airdrop on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $56.67
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $26.4
No position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $20.79
Yes position
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 39.3%
- Multiplier
- 2.55x
- User PnL
- $19.7
Yes position
No airdrop in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.02
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.71
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.31
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.15
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.57
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.98
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.28
Yes position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- $2.14
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.69
Yes position
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.04
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.94
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.14
No position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $0.12
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$25.38
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes 38.5% 153.35 shares
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Yes 7.4% 2,600.41 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?Yes 16% 6.25 shares
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes 38% 71.42 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No 85% 67.08 shares
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?No 12.6% 84.45 shares
- Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes 26.5% 40 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?No 75% 67.08 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?No 1.4% 3,571.43 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?No 1.7% 2,294.12 shares
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?No 0.9% 644.98 shares
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?No 1% 2,197.87 shares