StayYoung

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.6
Potential payout: $1.19K
Potential profit: $1.19K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$35

Yes position

Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.57
Potential payout: $1.13K
Potential profit: $1.13K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$7.47

Yes position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 9.3%
Current value: $95.43
Potential payout: $1.03K
Potential profit: $936.24
Multiplier: 10.81x
User PnL: $8.04

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $56.22
Potential payout: $995
Potential profit: $938.78
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: -$43.48

Yes position

Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.45
Potential payout: $899.97
Potential profit: $899.52
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$8.55

Yes position

Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $7.12
Potential payout: $838.07
Potential profit: $830.94
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$2.26

Yes position

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.19
Potential payout: $375.89
Potential profit: $375.7
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$29.26

Yes position

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $26.25
Potential payout: $350
Potential profit: $323.75
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$29.75

Yes position

Will USD-denominated stablecoin market share fall below 99% in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $35
Potential payout: $350
Potential profit: $315
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$21.1

Yes position

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $2.61
Potential payout: $348.34
Potential profit: $345.73
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$37.32

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 16, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $335
Potential profit: $335
User PnL: -$2.52

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $314.53
Potential profit: $314.53
User PnL: -$7.21

Yes position

Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $313.15
Potential profit: $313.15
User PnL: -$22.52

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

Ends Jan 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $310
Potential profit: $310
User PnL: -$4.62

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$1.8

Yes position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $127.5
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $172.5
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$72

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$16.2

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$3.9

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$11.1

Yes position

Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.14
Potential payout: $288.12
Potential profit: $287.97
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.17

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.12
Potential payout: $237.5
Potential profit: $237.38
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$8.19

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $33.35
Potential payout: $229.99
Potential profit: $196.64
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$21.65

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $223.28
Potential profit: $223.28
User PnL: -$39.64

Yes position

US federally charges Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel?

Implied probability: 3%
Current value: $6.69
Potential payout: $223.11
Potential profit: $216.41
Multiplier: 33.33x
User PnL: -$48.86

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $235.46

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $140.98

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $111.6

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.16

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.5

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?

Ends Jan 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.57

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.6

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.65

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $38.55

Yes position

US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

Implied probability: 39%
Multiplier: 2.56x
User PnL: $36.41

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.39

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

Ends Jan 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $35.36

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.25

Yes position

Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.2

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.05

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.01

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

Ends Jan 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.52

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.03

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.71

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.64

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?

Ends Jan 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.84

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.01

Yes position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?