Yes position
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20.84K
- Potential profit
- $20.84K
- User PnL
- -$6.43K
Polymarket Trader
Bonvivant
0xabf285ee20a926c1f360d42ee762b2e2f97045c5
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $600.05
- Realized PnL
- $1.53K
- Win rate
- 58.3%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30?
Ends Nov 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.19K
- Potential profit
- $4.19K
- User PnL
- -$745.22
Yes position
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $4.05
- Potential payout
- $2.7K
- Potential profit
- $2.7K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$332.95
Yes position
Starmer out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- User PnL
- -$200
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.15K
- Potential profit
- $1.15K
- User PnL
- -$618
Yes position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.4%
- Current value
- $55.31
- Potential payout
- $1.03K
- Potential profit
- $978.43
- Multiplier
- 18.69x
- User PnL
- -$64.69
Yes position
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 24%
- Current value
- $239.97
- Potential payout
- $999.89
- Potential profit
- $759.92
- Multiplier
- 4.17x
- User PnL
- -$129.99
Yes position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $833.33
- Potential profit
- $833.33
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero arrested by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $769.72
- Potential profit
- $769.72
- User PnL
- -$230.09
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $754.72
- Potential profit
- $754.72
- User PnL
- -$400
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 25.9%
- Current value
- $193.53
- Potential payout
- $748.68
- Potential profit
- $555.14
- Multiplier
- 3.87x
- User PnL
- $113.53
No position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $739.83
- Potential profit
- $739.83
- User PnL
- -$160
Yes position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $700
- Potential profit
- $700
- User PnL
- -$112
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $8.44
- Potential payout
- $625
- Potential profit
- $616.56
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$11.56
Yes position
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3?
Ends Nov 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $600
- User PnL
- -$18.66
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $588.24
- Potential profit
- $588.24
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $587.86
- Potential profit
- $587.86
- User PnL
- -$375.01
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 19.8%
- Current value
- $98.75
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $401.25
- Multiplier
- 5.06x
- User PnL
- -$51.25
Yes position
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $444.44
- Potential profit
- $444.44
- User PnL
- -$40
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September?
Ends Oct 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $400
- User PnL
- -$56
Yes position
Elon forms new party within 1 day of the spending bill passing?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $388.89
- Potential profit
- $388.89
- User PnL
- -$70
No position
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $350
- Potential profit
- $350
- User PnL
- -$98
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $333.33
- Potential profit
- $333.33
- User PnL
- -$20
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $331.58
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $300.88
Yes position
US military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $254.67
No position
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $171.43
No position
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $150.44
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $140
Yes position
Will the assassination of Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched news on Google this year?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $80.82
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.60x
- User PnL
- $76.73
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $62.03
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.23
Yes position
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole?
Ends Oct 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $57.33
No position
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?
Ends Jul 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $45.71
Yes position
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?
Ends Jul 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.47
No position
Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.26
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will there be another debate?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.06
Yes position
Trump blowout victory?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5.54
Yes position
Will Barron tweet in September?
Ends Sep 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$11
Yes position
Will Kathy Hochul endorse Mamdani?
Ends Nov 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$18.91
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$21.88
No position
Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$22.39
Yes position
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presidency?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Israeli ground operation against Fordow before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$42.89
Yes position
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$60.39
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes 12.5% 2,699.21 shares
- Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?Yes 56.7% 246.32 shares
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes 24.6% 800 shares
- José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero arrested by March 31?Yes 11% 91.73 shares
- José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero arrested by March 31?Yes 32.4% 677.99 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?Yes 15.5% 631.57 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?Yes 19% 631.58 shares
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes 15% 800 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yes 10% 800 shares
- Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?Yes 81.2% 246.33 shares
- Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31?Yes 22% 272.73 shares
- Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?Yes 20.7% 199.13 shares