N
No position
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $999.5
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Polymarket Trader
ArieLethal
0xac7229eedf32992e087d6af8c8deacb9ecb807c1
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $104.34
- Realized PnL
- $956.39
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.17
- Potential payout
- $333.33
- Potential profit
- $333.17
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.83
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $28.59
- Potential payout
- $173.28
- Potential profit
- $144.69
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- $1.59
Yes position
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.42
- Potential payout
- $166.67
- Potential profit
- $166.25
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.58
Yes position
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $0.64
- Potential payout
- $142.86
- Potential profit
- $142.22
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.36
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $0.95
- Potential payout
- $126.26
- Potential profit
- $125.31
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$1.05
Yes position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $1.88
- Potential payout
- $121.12
- Potential profit
- $119.24
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$0.12
No position
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $0.39
- Potential payout
- $111.11
- Potential profit
- $110.72
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$0.61
Yes position
Will Donald Trump dance on June 14, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.9%
- Current value
- $2.88
- Potential payout
- $101.14
- Potential profit
- $98.26
- Multiplier
- 35.09x
- User PnL
- -$1.12
Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.9%
- Current value
- $3.61
- Potential payout
- $93.73
- Potential profit
- $90.12
- Multiplier
- 25.97x
- User PnL
- -$6.39
Yes position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.7%
- Current value
- $1.52
- Potential payout
- $92.31
- Potential profit
- $90.78
- Multiplier
- 60.61x
- User PnL
- -$0.48
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.04
- Potential payout
- $83.33
- Potential profit
- $83.29
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.96
Yes position
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $6.89
- Potential payout
- $81.11
- Potential profit
- $74.22
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$0.41
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12%
- Current value
- $9.2
- Potential payout
- $76.67
- Potential profit
- $67.47
- Multiplier
- 8.33x
- User PnL
- $1.2
Yes position
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $4.96
- Potential payout
- $76.28
- Potential profit
- $71.32
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$17.04
Yes position
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.04
- Potential payout
- $73.42
- Potential profit
- $73.38
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.96
Yes position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $0.73
- Potential payout
- $72.94
- Potential profit
- $72.21
- Multiplier
- 100.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.27
Yes position
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $7.64
- Potential payout
- $72.73
- Potential profit
- $65.09
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$0.36
No position
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $8.81
- Potential payout
- $65.3
- Potential profit
- $56.48
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- $0.69
Yes position
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $14.69
- Potential payout
- $62.5
- Potential profit
- $47.81
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.31
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $5.82
- Potential payout
- $61.26
- Potential profit
- $55.44
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.93
Yes position
Will Trump hug an Iranian official by June 20?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $0.19
- Potential payout
- $55.56
- Potential profit
- $55.36
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- -$0.81
Yes position
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.6%
- Current value
- $3
- Potential payout
- $53.61
- Potential profit
- $50.61
- Multiplier
- 17.86x
- User PnL
- $1
Yes position
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $0.78
- Potential payout
- $52.24
- Potential profit
- $51.46
- Multiplier
- 66.67x
- User PnL
- -$2.22
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $136.8
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET
Ends Mar 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $77.63
Yes position
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-03-08?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.81
No position
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.33
Max Houkes position
Kigali 2: Max Houkes vs Luka Pavlovic
Ends Mar 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.14
Yes position
Will FC Porto win on 2026-03-12?
Ends Mar 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.26
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $44.71
Yes position
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11?
Ends Mar 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.61
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.97
Blues position
Blues vs. Hurricanes
Ends Mar 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.86
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET
Ends Mar 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.56
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.8
Lakers position
Timberwolves vs. Lakers
Ends Mar 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.91
Pelicans position
Raptors vs. Pelicans
Ends Mar 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.41
TCU Horned Frogs position
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Ends Mar 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.16
Yes position
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.51
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET
Ends Mar 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.5
Yes position
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17?
Ends Mar 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.41
Cody Garbrandt position
UFC 326: Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long (Bantamweight, Prelims)
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.01
Yes position
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10?
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.94
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.47
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.83
Yes position
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-03-12?
Ends Mar 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.75
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will France win on 2026-06-22?No 10% 10 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 3.7% 27.78 shares
- Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?Yes 9.4% 10.69 shares
- Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026?Yes 1.7% 74.64 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Yes 16% 6.25 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Yes 1.7% 58.82 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Yes 1.6% 62.3 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes 25% 11.11 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by July 15?Yes 13% 7.69 shares
- Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?Yes 15% 6.67 shares
- Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?No 14% 7.14 shares
- Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?Yes 11% 18.18 shares