Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.76K
- Potential profit
- $3.76K
- User PnL
- -$50
Polymarket Trader
4knort
0xaca58a11e18911452382289b6867405299df2709
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $735.15
- Realized PnL
- $2.28K
- Win rate
- 91.7%
- Open positions
- 21
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?
Ends Feb 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.3K
- Potential profit
- $3.3K
- User PnL
- -$49
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.23K
- Potential profit
- $3.23K
- User PnL
- -$29
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.89K
- Potential profit
- $2.89K
- User PnL
- -$73.31
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.75K
- Potential profit
- $1.75K
- User PnL
- -$52.38
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.67K
- Potential profit
- $1.67K
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $228.95
- Potential payout
- $1.58K
- Potential profit
- $1.35K
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$71.05
Yes position
Will JD Vance clap between 40–49 times during the State of the Union?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.58K
- Potential profit
- $1.58K
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.16K
- Potential profit
- $1.16K
- User PnL
- -$24.99
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.11K
- Potential profit
- $1.11K
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $909.09
- Potential profit
- $909.09
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will JD Vance clap between 50–59 times during the State of the Union?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $830.33
- Potential profit
- $830.33
- User PnL
- -$1.06
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $724.03
- Potential profit
- $724.03
- User PnL
- -$330
Yes position
Will JD Vance clap between 60–69 times during the State of the Union?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $525
- Potential profit
- $525
- User PnL
- -$2.63
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 41.5%
- Current value
- $212.82
- Potential payout
- $512.82
- Potential profit
- $300
- Multiplier
- 2.41x
- User PnL
- $12.82
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 7?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $450
- Potential profit
- $450
- User PnL
- -$36
Max Holloway position
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 66.5%
- Current value
- $293.38
- Potential payout
- $441.18
- Potential profit
- $147.79
- Multiplier
- 1.50x
- User PnL
- -$6.62
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $289.97
- Potential profit
- $289.97
- User PnL
- -$11
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $243.48
- Potential profit
- $243.48
- User PnL
- -$25
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $238.1
- Potential profit
- $238.1
- User PnL
- -$15
Alex Pereira position
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $98.04
- Potential profit
- $98.04
- User PnL
- -$50
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $746.22
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $547.5
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $301.71
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $201.01
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $190.33
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- $124.91
Charles Oliveira position
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $97.06
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.27
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.9
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.9
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.9
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.9
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET
Ends Jan 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.9
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.9
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.9
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
Ends Jan 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.9
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET
Ends Jan 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.9
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.9
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET
Ends Jan 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.9
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.9
Up position
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.85
Justin Gaethje position
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET
Ends Jan 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.61
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)Max Holloway 68% 441.18 shares
- UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)Justin Gaethje 20% 250 shares
- UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)Alex Pereira 51% 98.04 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 19% 1,578.95 shares
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes 39% 512.82 shares
- Will Trump visit China by May 15?No 10.9% 1,250 shares
- Will Trump visit China by May 15?No 16% 1,250 shares
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?No 94% 892.85 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No 95% 1,443.16 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No 63% 1,461.06 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No 61% 819.67 shares
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?No 56% 892.86 shares