No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 26.5%
- Current value
- $2.94
- Potential payout
- $11.11
- Potential profit
- $8.17
- Multiplier
- 3.77x
- User PnL
- $1.94
Polymarket Trader
0xACC1BC42C60A65D836CC0944bF4F6c9c4caf1d34-1768515771650
0xacc1bc42c60a65d836cc0944bf4f6c9c4caf1d34
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $22.85
- Realized PnL
- -$23.6
- Win rate
- 31.8%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 22
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 29.2%
- Current value
- $3.24
- Potential payout
- $11.11
- Potential profit
- $7.87
- Multiplier
- 3.42x
- User PnL
- $2.24
Yes position
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.9%
- Current value
- $6.45
- Potential payout
- $9.09
- Potential profit
- $2.65
- Multiplier
- 1.41x
- User PnL
- $5.45
No position
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $4.82
- Potential payout
- $5.13
- Potential profit
- $0.31
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $2.82
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 16%
- Current value
- $0.47
- Potential payout
- $2.94
- Potential profit
- $2.47
- Multiplier
- 6.25x
- User PnL
- -$0.53
No position
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $2.43
- Potential payout
- $2.44
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $1.43
N
No position
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 58%
- Current value
- $1.14
- Potential payout
- $1.96
- Potential profit
- $0.82
- Multiplier
- 1.72x
- User PnL
- $0.14
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $1.36
- Potential payout
- $1.54
- Potential profit
- $0.18
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $0.36
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Partido Popular win 25-27 seats in the 2026 Aragon regional election?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.26
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.13
Yes position
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Castilla y León Regional Election?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.31
No position
Will Trump say "Trump" during King Charles visit?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.27
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.61
Yes position
Will Claude go down 12+ times in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.53
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.26
Yes position
Will Italy join the Board of Peace?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Trump say "Declaration of Independence" during King Charles visit?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Crude Oil all time high by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Partido Popular win 31-33 seats in the 2026 Aragon regional election?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.99
Yes position
Will Partido Popular win 28-30 seats in the 2026 Aragon regional election?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.99
No position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?No 51% 1.96 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?Yes 34% 2.94 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?Yes 65% 1.54 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?Yes 9% 11.11 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Yes 11% 9.09 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026?No 41% 2.44 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?No 9% 11.11 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?Yes 25% 4 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?No 12.3% 8.15 shares
- Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9?No 16% 6.25 shares
- Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority?Yes 0.1% 6.34 shares
- Andalusia Election: PP Absolute Majority?Yes 63% 6.35 shares