Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $9.17
- Potential payout
- $87.36
- Potential profit
- $78.18
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$3.06
Polymarket Trader
0xace7...39a3
0xace7270842ff0f7f17a7183a2e353939b13d39a3
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $176.18
- Realized PnL
- $222.24
- Win rate
- 33.3%
- Open positions
- 17
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Current value
- $38.29
- Potential payout
- $86.05
- Potential profit
- $47.76
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- $1.29
Yes position
Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 3.4%
- Current value
- $2.52
- Potential payout
- $75.12
- Potential profit
- $72.6
- Multiplier
- 29.85x
- User PnL
- -$2.33
Yes position
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Current value
- $2.03
- Potential payout
- $66.67
- Potential profit
- $64.63
- Multiplier
- 32.79x
- User PnL
- -$2.97
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $59.67
- Potential payout
- $66.67
- Potential profit
- $7
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $9.67
No position
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Current value
- $27.44
- Potential payout
- $54.33
- Potential profit
- $26.89
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- -$0.81
Yes position
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 7%
- Current value
- $3.5
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $46.5
- Multiplier
- 14.29x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Yes position
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.9%
- Current value
- $1.62
- Potential payout
- $41.67
- Potential profit
- $40.04
- Multiplier
- 25.64x
- User PnL
- -$3.38
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.1%
- Current value
- $5.23
- Potential payout
- $26.02
- Potential profit
- $20.79
- Multiplier
- 4.98x
- User PnL
- $0.13
Yes position
Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in July?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.6%
- Current value
- $1.46
- Potential payout
- $22.34
- Potential profit
- $20.88
- Multiplier
- 15.27x
- User PnL
- -$0.54
Yes position
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $0.11
- Potential payout
- $19.11
- Potential profit
- $18.99
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.26
Yes position
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $2.41
- Potential payout
- $17.86
- Potential profit
- $15.45
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$2.59
No position
Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to no prison time?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 27%
- Current value
- $4.31
- Potential payout
- $16.01
- Potential profit
- $11.69
- Multiplier
- 3.71x
- User PnL
- -$0.69
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.5%
- Current value
- $12.53
- Potential payout
- $12.99
- Potential profit
- $0.46
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $2.53
No position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 39.5%
- Current value
- $5.1
- Potential payout
- $12.91
- Potential profit
- $7.81
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- $0.58
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.01
- Potential payout
- $7.14
- Potential profit
- $7.13
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.99
Yes position
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 12%
- Current value
- $0.77
- Potential payout
- $6.45
- Potential profit
- $5.68
- Multiplier
- 8.33x
- User PnL
- -$1.23
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $141.21
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.3
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.33
Yes position
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.66
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.44
Yes position
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- $3.32
Yes position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- $1.49
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.73
Yes position
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
French election called by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
US recognize Somaliland by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.4
Yes position
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.83
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Russia enter Svitle by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Trump speak to Pope Leo XIV in July?Yes 9% 22.34 shares
- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes 8% 165.83 shares
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Yes 11% 149.2 shares
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Yes 4% 100.75 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?Yes 14% 87.36 shares
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes 43% 86.05 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 77% 12.99 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Yes 75% 66.67 shares
- Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Yes 98.8% 60.73 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 96.8% 118.85 shares
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?No 28% 17.86 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?Yes 6.6% 30.3 shares