No position
Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $41.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $8.25
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$3.75
Polymarket Trader
vitalik-fan
0xad2d7e54d797a1f5577e7c3d0227f005c3066d8d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $60.28
- Realized PnL
- $1.9
- Win rate
- 42.9%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 7
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on July 18, 2026?
Ends Jul 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $2.98
- Potential payout
- $35
- Potential profit
- $32.03
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- $1.58
Yes position
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on July 18, 2026?
Ends Jul 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $15.56
- Potential payout
- $17
- Potential profit
- $1.45
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0.08
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?
Ends Jul 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- $1.24
N
No position
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?
Ends Jul 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.46
Y
Yes position
Will Riz Ahmed – “Bait” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie?
Ends Sep 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- $0.4
Yes position
Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs in a single round during the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?
Ends Jul 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 32.5%
- Multiplier
- 3.08x
- User PnL
- $0
N
No position
Will Riz Ahmed – “Bait” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie?
Ends Sep 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 37.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.67x
- User PnL
- $0
N
No position
Will Harrison Ford – “Shrinking” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a comedy series?
Ends Sep 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 48.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.06x
- User PnL
- -$0.2
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Riz Ahmed – “Bait” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie?Yes 16% 40 shares
- Will Riz Ahmed – “Bait” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a limited or anthology series or movie?No 83% 40 shares
- Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs in a single round during the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby?Yes 32% 5 shares
- Will Harrison Ford – “Shrinking” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a comedy series?No 48% 20 shares
- Will Harrison Ford – “Shrinking” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a comedy series?No 49% 20 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Yes 32% 400 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Yes 32% 400 shares