No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $250.72
- Potential payout
- $289.86
- Potential profit
- $39.13
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $50.72
Polymarket Trader
0xaD61aC3f0f30087cd993259e16F52F26738CD84e-1760850753011
0xad61ac3f0f30087cd993259e16f52f26738cd84e
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $714.87
- Realized PnL
- -$361.77
- Win rate
- 30%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 20
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.9%
- Current value
- $129.2
- Potential payout
- $154.08
- Potential profit
- $24.88
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $29.2
No position
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 73%
- Current value
- $111.27
- Potential payout
- $152.43
- Potential profit
- $41.15
- Multiplier
- 1.37x
- User PnL
- $11.27
Yes position
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $108.1
- Potential payout
- $134.28
- Potential profit
- $26.18
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $8.1
Yes position
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $127.63
- Potential profit
- $127.63
- User PnL
- -$30
No position
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $106.44
- Potential payout
- $123.06
- Potential profit
- $16.61
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $6.44
Yes position
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?
Ends Jul 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Australia win on 2026-07-03?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 26.5%
- Current value
- $9.14
- Potential payout
- $34.48
- Potential profit
- $25.34
- Multiplier
- 3.77x
- User PnL
- -$0.86
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.93
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.78
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.47
No position
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0.24
Yes position
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.6%
- Multiplier
- 4.85x
- User PnL
- -$1.74
No position
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- -$3.55
No position
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 65%
- Multiplier
- 1.54x
- User PnL
- -$3.74
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET
Ends May 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.2%
- Multiplier
- 24.10x
- User PnL
- -$8.21
No position
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$8.37
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$9.22
Yes position
DeepSeek V4 released by March 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$9.58
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$9.65
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$17.38
Yes position
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$19.4
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by March 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$67.39
Yes position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$102.96
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?Yes 26% 38.46 shares
- Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?Yes 2% 29.85 shares
- Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?Yes 67% 29.85 shares
- Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?Yes 20% 50 shares
- Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?Yes 40% 25 shares
- Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?Yes 20% 50 shares
- Will Australia win on 2026-07-03?Yes 29% 34.48 shares
- Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?Yes 26% 38.46 shares
- Will Japan win on 2026-06-29?Yes 19% 52.63 shares
- Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?Yes 89% 98.73 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 74% 139.14 shares
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?No 96.5% 106.7 shares