Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $1.98K
- Potential payout
- $3.51K
- Potential profit
- $1.53K
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- -$439.12
Polymarket Trader
ErnstKuzorra
@nbuschi
0xad8e0a79c34730774cfb1870d9fbdc0bfa45776e
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $21.64K
- Realized PnL
- $18.18K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 13
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Trump out as President by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $2.99K
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $13.5
- User PnL
- $45
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $2.33K
- Potential payout
- $2.89K
- Potential profit
- $563.25
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- -$187.4
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $2.3K
- Potential payout
- $2.82K
- Potential profit
- $521.41
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $295.5
Yes position
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 88%
- Current value
- $2.23K
- Potential payout
- $2.53K
- Potential profit
- $303.52
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $89.77
No position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $2.48K
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $17.5
- User PnL
- $39
No position
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Current value
- $2K
- Potential payout
- $2.05K
- Potential profit
- $47.07
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $201.76
Yes position
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?
Ends Jul 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.7%
- Current value
- $1.87K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $126
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $232
Under position
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.75K
- Potential profit
- $1.75K
- User PnL
- -$1K
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $1.49K
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $9.75
- User PnL
- $80.25
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $996.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $3.5
- User PnL
- $22.5
Yes position
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.7%
- Current value
- $496.61
- Potential payout
- $530
- Potential profit
- $33.39
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$1.59
Yes position
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.4%
- Current value
- $487
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $13
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.23K
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $1.57K
Yes position
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?
Ends Oct 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.04K
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.03K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $717.01
No position
Will Trump say "Third term" in March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $693.55
No position
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $635.01
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $620.81
Yes position
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $534.8
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $475
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $440.2
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $407.94
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $400.98
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $398.59
No position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $394.8
No position
Iran leadership change by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $346.25
No position
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 15)
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $324.34
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $299.32
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $297.46
No position
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $292.38
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $272.7
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $269.42
No position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $248.79
No position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $237.61
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5Under 57% 1,754.39 shares
- Will France win on 2026-06-16?Yes 66% 3,030.3 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 97.3% 9.27 shares
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5Under 62% 1,612.9 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No 97.9% 1,000 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No 97.8% 125.78 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 71% 1,408.45 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 71% 1,408.45 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 84.5% 103.57 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 84.5% 0.54 shares
- Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5Under 67% 1,492.54 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 80.8% 399.99 shares