pentxayc

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $250
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance attend Super Bowl LX?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $213.6
Potential profit: $213.6
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $206.19
Potential profit: $206.19
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Donald Trump attend Super Bowl LX?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $172.41
Potential profit: $172.41
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Erika Kirk attend Super Bowl LX?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $124.85
Potential profit: $124.85
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $98.04
Potential profit: $98.04
User PnL: -$5

No position

GTA 6 launch postponed again?

Ends Nov 19, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $77.31
Potential payout: $85.43
Potential profit: $8.12
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $27.31

Yes position

Will the US strike Iran next?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $72.59
Potential profit: $72.59
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $55.56
User PnL: -$10

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 12PM ET

Ends Jan 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $39.77
Potential profit: $39.77
User PnL: -$17.5

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $38.46
Potential profit: $38.46
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $3.39
Potential payout: $35.71
Potential profit: $32.32
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$1.61

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $3.97
Potential payout: $29.41
Potential profit: $25.44
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$1.03

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $2.38
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $22.63
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$7.63

Yes position

Will Trump say "Epstein" during the 2026 State of the Union address?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $25
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 14?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.81
Potential profit: $23.81
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.81
Potential profit: $23.81
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $19.23
Potential profit: $19.23
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Elon Musk attend Super Bowl LX?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $18.52
Potential profit: $18.52
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Iran leadership change by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.33
Potential profit: $14.33
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.51
Potential profit: $13.51
User PnL: -$5

No position

Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.16
Potential profit: $13.16
User PnL: -$5

No position

Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.5
Potential profit: $12.5
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $11.48
Potential profit: $11.45
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$4.97

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $228.59

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.46

Yes position

Will Artemis II launch by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.48

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.23

No position

Will Kanye tweet again by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.39

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?

Ends Jan 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.63

Yes position

Will Trump's approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on January 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.82

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.27

No position

Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during the 2026 State of the Union address?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.33

Yes position

Will Trump say "No No No" during the 2026 State of the Union address?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.33

Yes position

Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.71

Up position

Meta (META) Up or Down on January 27?

Ends Jan 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.29

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.29

No position

Will Kanye release BULLY by January 30?

Ends Jan 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.26

Yes position

Will Trump say "Great Shape" this week? (January 25)

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.89

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.88

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.47

Yes position

Will Trump say "No No No" this week? (February 8)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.45

No position

Will Trump say "The State of the Union is strong" during the 2026 State of the Union address?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.17

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.08

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET

Ends Feb 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1

Yes position

Will the US strike ≤3 countries in January 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.88

Israel position

Will US or Israel strike Iran first?