No position
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Current value
- $448.96
- Potential payout
- $465
- Potential profit
- $16.04
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- -$1.82
Polymarket Trader
0xae3f82B749EC4690A4130Ff0466779392A1D5D56-1760076259280
0xae3f82b749ec4690a4130ff0466779392a1d5d56
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $920.7
- Realized PnL
- $562.25
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 20
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $265
- Potential profit
- $265
- User PnL
- -$164
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $210.98
- Potential payout
- $262.08
- Potential profit
- $51.11
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- -$6.19
Yes position
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 3.4%
- Current value
- $3.35
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $96.65
- Multiplier
- 29.85x
- User PnL
- -$1.25
No position
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.6%
- Current value
- $72.69
- Potential payout
- $76.88
- Potential profit
- $4.19
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $5.04
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.6%
- Current value
- $68.29
- Potential payout
- $70
- Potential profit
- $1.72
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $1.43
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $44.89
- Potential payout
- $45
- Potential profit
- $0.11
- User PnL
- $1.04
No position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $29.85
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $0.15
- User PnL
- $0.42
Yes position
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$11.19
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$6.2
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.33
- Potential profit
- $15.33
- User PnL
- -$4.75
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $14.98
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $4.23
Yes position
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $13.42
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $1.58
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $3.13
Yes position
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $0.08
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $9.93
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $4.97
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.03
- User PnL
- $0.17
Yes position
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $3.08
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $1.92
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- -$1.07
No position
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $4.99
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $0.01
- User PnL
- $0.89
Yes position
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $5
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.95
Yes position
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.5%
- Current value
- $0.17
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $4.83
- Multiplier
- 28.99x
- User PnL
- -$4.33
Yes position
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.03
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $4.97
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $0.02
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $166.65
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.18
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026?
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.58
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.45
Yes position
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $27
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.33
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.6
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.8
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026?
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.8
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $18.78
No position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- User PnL
- $16.59
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.4
Yes position
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.38
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14
No position
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.36
No position
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $12.11
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026?
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.82
No position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.2
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.03
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.63
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.9
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.85
No position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.8
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes 81% 75 shares
- Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?No 99.8% 130 shares
- Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?No 99.6% 10 shares
- Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 96.2% 90 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 95% 60 shares
- Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 96.2% 75 shares
- Starmer out by August 31, 2026?Yes 93% 5 shares
- Starmer out by August 31, 2026?Yes 93% 5 shares
- Starmer out by August 31, 2026?Yes 93% 5 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 93% 5 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 93% 5 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 91.4% 300 shares