helloSparrow

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $1.36
Potential payout: $271.52
Potential profit: $270.16
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$40.45

No position

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 60.3%
Current value: $121.1
Potential payout: $201
Potential profit: $79.9
Multiplier: 1.66x
User PnL: -$28.69

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $156.34
Potential payout: $156.58
Potential profit: $0.23
User PnL: $125.88

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 17?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $148.59
Potential profit: $148.52
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$17.16

No position

Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 98.5%
Current value: $135.93
Potential payout: $138
Potential profit: $2.07
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $30.54

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $3.46
Potential payout: $136.26
Potential profit: $132.8
Multiplier: 39.37x
User PnL: -$19.69

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 49.5%
Current value: $54.82
Potential payout: $110.75
Potential profit: $55.93
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: $24.83

No position

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.16
Potential payout: $107
Potential profit: $106.84
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$77.44

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $74.17
Potential payout: $106.73
Potential profit: $32.56
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: $43.59

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $1.53
Potential payout: $102
Potential profit: $100.47
Multiplier: 66.67x
User PnL: -$19.38

No position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $10.2
Potential payout: $102
Potential profit: $91.8
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$67.83

No position

Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 18?

Implied probability: 74%
Current value: $73.18
Potential payout: $98.89
Potential profit: $25.71
Multiplier: 1.35x
User PnL: $5.85

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 10.6%
Current value: $9.88
Potential payout: $93.62
Potential profit: $83.74
Multiplier: 9.48x
User PnL: -$25.27

No position

Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.23
Potential payout: $91.01
Potential profit: $90.79
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$66.55

No position

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $78.1
Potential payout: $78.26
Potential profit: $0.16
User PnL: $33.67

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $72.98
Potential payout: $73.64
Potential profit: $0.66
User PnL: $50.15

No position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $73.32
Potential payout: $73.35
Potential profit: $0.04
User PnL: $13.45

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 98.4%
Current value: $69.71
Potential payout: $70.84
Potential profit: $1.13
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $32.56

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $69.3
Potential payout: $69.4
Potential profit: $0.1
User PnL: $49.77

No position

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 30.5%
Current value: $20.79
Potential payout: $68.15
Potential profit: $47.36
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: -$23.55

No position

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.1
Potential payout: $65.74
Potential profit: $65.64
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$40.49

No position

Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 68.5%
Current value: $43.16
Potential payout: $63
Potential profit: $19.85
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: -$1.99

No position

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 68.5%
Current value: $43.16
Potential payout: $63
Potential profit: $19.85
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: -$3.46

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 31.5%
Current value: $19.85
Potential payout: $63
Potential profit: $43.16
Multiplier: 3.17x
User PnL: $0.74

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.19K

Yes position

US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.8K

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.19K

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.15K

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $484.48

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $446.88

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $432.36

No position

US strike on Cuba by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $255.81

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $102.99

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.81

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.78

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.74

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.93

No position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.12

No position

Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 99%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $17.55

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.25

No position

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.52

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $11

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.36

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13?

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.34

No position

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.51

No position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.45

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13?

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.02

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 17?