Polymarket Trader

0xAE8C00Ba02ed7239deb64ea82F846D53efCDdC39-1782319110684

0xae8c00ba02ed7239deb64ea82f846d53efcddc39

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $234.31
Realized PnL: $45.84
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 23
Closed positions: 3
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $7.73
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $83.18
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$2.27

Yes position

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $11.07
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $60.36
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $1.07

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 17.8%
Current value: $11.75
Potential payout: $66.23
Potential profit: $54.47
Multiplier: 5.63x
User PnL: $1.75

Yes position

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 30.5%
Current value: $16.05
Potential payout: $52.63
Potential profit: $36.58
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: $6.05

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 37.1%
Current value: $19.1
Potential payout: $51.55
Potential profit: $32.45
Multiplier: 2.70x
User PnL: $9.1

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $6.75
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $43.25
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$3.25

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $6.14
Potential payout: $45.45
Potential profit: $39.32
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$3.86

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 22.5%
Current value: $9.68
Potential payout: $43.1
Potential profit: $33.43
Multiplier: 4.45x
User PnL: -$0.32

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $9.94
Potential payout: $39.06
Potential profit: $29.12
Multiplier: 3.93x
User PnL: -$0.06

No position

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 45.5%
Current value: $11.1
Potential payout: $24.39
Potential profit: $13.29
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: $1.1

No position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $20.33
Potential payout: $21.98
Potential profit: $1.65
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.33

No position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 67.5%
Current value: $12.61
Potential payout: $18.68
Potential profit: $6.07
Multiplier: 1.48x
User PnL: $1.4

No position

Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.29
Potential profit: $14.29
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13.33
Potential profit: $13.33
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 77.9%
Current value: $9.9
Potential payout: $12.72
Potential profit: $2.82
Multiplier: 1.28x
User PnL: -$0.1

No position

Natural Disaster in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $10.38
Potential payout: $12.66
Potential profit: $2.28
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $0.38

Yes position

Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 85%
Current value: $10.63
Potential payout: $12.5
Potential profit: $1.88
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $0.63

No position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $10.31
Potential payout: $12.35
Potential profit: $2.04
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $0.31

No position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 83%
Current value: $10
Potential payout: $12.05
Potential profit: $2.05
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$0

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 90%
Current value: $10.34
Potential payout: $11.49
Potential profit: $1.15
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $0.34

Yes position

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 92.9%
Current value: $10.34
Potential payout: $11.14
Potential profit: $0.8
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.34

No position

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90%
Current value: $10
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $1.11
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: -$0

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $10.16
Potential payout: $10.99
Potential profit: $0.82
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.16

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.9%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $25.65

Juan Manuel La Serna position

Piracicaba: Enzo Kohlmann de Freitas vs Juan Manuel La Serna

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.36

No position

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.83

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

No 98.9% 11.96 shares
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Yes 11% 90.91 shares
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Yes 25.6% 39.06 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

Yes 75% 13.33 shares
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?

Yes 91.3% 50 shares
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

No 90% 11.11 shares
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Yes 89.8% 11.14 shares
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

No 83.6% 11.96 shares
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Yes 19% 52.63 shares
Piracicaba: Enzo Kohlmann de Freitas vs Juan Manuel La Serna

Juan Manuel La Serna 63.5% 50.3 shares
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Yes 80% 12.5 shares
Iran leadership change by December 31?

No 83% 12.05 shares