Yes position
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $28.05
- Potential payout
- $110
- Potential profit
- $81.95
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- -$48.15
Polymarket Trader
arcanecapital
0xae8d4181fc4ff40640007484fd0188cae6e0fa5d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $296.26
- Realized PnL
- $295.92
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 14
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $52.5
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $7.5
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $3.3
No position
Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.7%
- Current value
- $46.85
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $3.15
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $2.85
Yes position
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $4
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $46
- Multiplier
- 12.50x
- User PnL
- -$1.9
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88%
- Current value
- $44
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $6
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
No position
Iran Nuke before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $45.52
- Potential payout
- $48.45
- Potential profit
- $2.93
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $1.43
No position
Evo Morales arrested by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.2%
- Current value
- $28.55
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $1.45
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $6.35
Yes position
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$9.7
No position
AI data center in space by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $18.9
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $1.1
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.5
Anthropic position
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 69.5%
- Current value
- $13.9
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $6.1
- Multiplier
- 1.44x
- User PnL
- -$2.3
Yes position
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$1.2
No position
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $7.95
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $2.05
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $0.15
No position
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Current value
- $2.28
- Potential payout
- $5
- Potential profit
- $2.73
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
No position
Will Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $3.77
- Potential payout
- $4.12
- Potential profit
- $0.35
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $0.35
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Drake officially release Iceman by March 31, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.65
Something position
Nothing Ever Happens: February
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.65
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.98
No position
TJR mentee Timmeh earns prop payout in 30 days?
Ends Apr 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $19.56
Nothing position
Nothing Ever Happens: March
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.47
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.47
Yes position
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.47
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.42
No position
Will USD reach 1.5M Iranian rials by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.2
No position
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.17
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.97
No position
Moltbook shutdown by Feb 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.95
No position
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.73
No position
Peter Mandelson charged by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.83
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.5
Yes position
Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.4
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: Iran Strike Edition
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.37
No position
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.68
No position
Meta "Mango" model released by March 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.08
Yes position
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?
Ends Jan 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.95
No position
AWS service disrupted by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.92
No position
Nothing Ever Happens: US Strike Edition
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.9
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.83
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: December
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.78
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?Yes 65% 30 shares
- Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Yes 62% 10 shares
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?Yes 12% 10 shares
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14?Yes 52% 8 shares
- Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?No 85% 10 shares
- Tucker Carlson arrested by May 31?No 98.7% 40 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Yes 7% 72.65 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Yes 12% 80.58 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Yes 32% 6 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Yes 31% 10 shares
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?No 12.4% 20 shares
- Will Venezuela become 51st state?No 95.4% 40 shares