Yes position
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 75%
- Current value
- $201.81
- Potential payout
- $269.08
- Potential profit
- $67.27
- Multiplier
- 1.33x
- User PnL
- $155.4
Polymarket Trader
parameter1
0xae91ec7354e12acb90922e9b7abdf6fc471f0f69
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.89K
- Realized PnL
- $1.22K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $170.33
- Potential payout
- $190.31
- Potential profit
- $19.98
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $30.33
No position
Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $167.48
- Potential payout
- $180.09
- Potential profit
- $12.61
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $17.48
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $123.52
- Potential payout
- $144.47
- Potential profit
- $20.95
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- -$1.48
Yes position
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $140.33
- Potential profit
- $140.33
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $138.06
- Potential payout
- $139.17
- Potential profit
- $1.11
- User PnL
- $44.65
No position
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.2%
- Current value
- $122.67
- Potential payout
- $124.92
- Potential profit
- $2.25
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $19.07
No position
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $86.49
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $13.5
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $1.5
No position
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $86.19
- Potential payout
- $95.24
- Potential profit
- $9.05
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $6.19
No position
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.1%
- Current value
- $90.09
- Potential payout
- $92.82
- Potential profit
- $2.74
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $22.11
No position
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?
Ends Jan 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $82.57
- Potential payout
- $87.37
- Potential profit
- $4.81
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $2.32
Yes position
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 53%
- Current value
- $45.04
- Potential payout
- $84.99
- Potential profit
- $39.95
- Multiplier
- 1.89x
- User PnL
- -$3.56
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $77.66
- Potential payout
- $84.88
- Potential profit
- $7.21
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $23.97
No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $77.89
- Potential payout
- $84.2
- Potential profit
- $6.32
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $7.89
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Current value
- $37.91
- Potential payout
- $83.33
- Potential profit
- $45.41
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- -$22.09
No position
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
Ends Nov 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 82%
- Current value
- $61.9
- Potential payout
- $75.48
- Potential profit
- $13.59
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $1.89
Yes position
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $72.39
- Potential profit
- $72.39
- User PnL
- -$53
No position
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $43.04
- Potential payout
- $69.99
- Potential profit
- $26.95
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $4.04
Yes position
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Current value
- $59.01
- Potential payout
- $67.83
- Potential profit
- $8.82
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- $12.96
Yes position
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 69.5%
- Current value
- $45.33
- Potential payout
- $65.23
- Potential profit
- $19.9
- Multiplier
- 1.44x
- User PnL
- $6.93
No position
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Current value
- $62.82
- Potential payout
- $64.1
- Potential profit
- $1.28
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $12.82
No position
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79%
- Current value
- $49.56
- Potential payout
- $62.74
- Potential profit
- $13.17
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $12.56
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $55.29
- Potential payout
- $61.78
- Potential profit
- $6.49
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $10.29
Yes position
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.7%
- Current value
- $1.61
- Potential payout
- $60.6
- Potential profit
- $59
- Multiplier
- 37.74x
- User PnL
- -$3.39
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will "M5" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?
Ends Mar 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $233.32
Yes position
Will OpenAI’s GPT 5 lose the NOF1.ai competition?
Ends Nov 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.55
Yes position
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $60.61
No position
Will "Man on Fire" be the top global Netflix show this week?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.99
No position
Will Ole Gunnar Solskjær be appointed as manager of Manchester United?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.7
Yes position
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $51.46
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.08
Yes position
Will Wolves finish in last place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.99
Yes position
Will "Office Romance" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.26
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.87
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.36
No position
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)
Ends Dec 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.13
No position
Will "Man on Fire" be the top US Netflix show this week?
Ends May 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.7
Yes position
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)
Ends Dec 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.54
Yes position
Will Unknown’s Mystery Model win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.81
Yes position
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.81
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.98
Yes position
Will Apple be the second most valuable company on October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.11
Yes position
Will xAI’s Grok 4 lose the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.05
Yes position
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.67
No position
Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.56
No position
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the top global Netflix movie this week?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.29
Yes position
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.53
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.99
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Harry Kane: 1+ goalsYes 45% 2.22 shares
- Will England win on 2026-06-17?Yes 58% 8.62 shares
- Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?Yes 64% 3.13 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes 64% 7.81 shares
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?No 81% 37.04 shares
- Spread: France (-1.5)Senegal 61% 1.64 shares
- Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?Yes 96.5% 43.03 shares
- Spread: Belgium (-1.5)Egypt 63% 3.17 shares
- Spread: Spain (-1.5)Spain 79% 6.33 shares
- UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)Alex Pereira 51% 1.96 shares
- Spread: Germany (-3.5)Curaçao 50% 2 shares
- Will Netherlands go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?No 47% 4.26 shares