Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 16.7%
- Current value
- $13.22K
- Potential payout
- $79.41K
- Potential profit
- $66.19K
- Multiplier
- 6.01x
- User PnL
- -$26.48K
Polymarket Trader
Kevin-Warsh
0xaf1555f0edbcf21cf66caf779fa84b8396cf5dd2
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $92.71K
- Realized PnL
- -$22.26K
- Win rate
- 60%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 5
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 83.4%
- Current value
- $66.19K
- Potential payout
- $79.41K
- Potential profit
- $13.22K
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $26.48K
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- Current value
- $9.94K
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $65
- User PnL
- $9.94K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $25
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $9.97K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.17K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$1.37K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $3.33K
- Potential payout
- $3.94K
- Potential profit
- $610.99
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $1.04K
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.64K
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.1K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$303.87
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$24.7K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 26% 3.85 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 25% 2,806.57 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No 81% 1,839.86 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No 83% 15,310.91 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes 13% 36 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Yes 20% 0.15 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?Yes 12% 8 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No 89% 5,000 shares
- Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?Yes 99.9% 1,929.63 shares
- Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?Yes 11% 0.14 shares
- Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?Yes 1% 1 shares
- Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?Yes 5% 1 shares