Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $44.94
- Potential payout
- $290.86
- Potential profit
- $245.92
- Multiplier
- 6.47x
- User PnL
- $1.91
Polymarket Trader
0xaf15...3b51
0xaf15bf5126d32163df76defd6887ca316df63b51
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $179.54
- Realized PnL
- $188
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 23.2%
- Current value
- $10.62
- Potential payout
- $45.89
- Potential profit
- $35.27
- Multiplier
- 4.32x
- User PnL
- -$0.99
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $32.61
- Potential payout
- $42.08
- Potential profit
- $9.47
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $11.97
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.3%
- Current value
- $39.11
- Potential payout
- $39.79
- Potential profit
- $0.68
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $2.13
No position
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?
Ends Jun 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $37.35
- Potential profit
- $37.35
- User PnL
- -$4.94
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?
Ends Jun 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $32.64
- Potential profit
- $32.64
- User PnL
- -$4.29
No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 69%
- Current value
- $22.25
- Potential payout
- $32.25
- Potential profit
- $10
- Multiplier
- 1.45x
- User PnL
- $5.93
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 31%
- Current value
- $8.33
- Potential payout
- $26.86
- Potential profit
- $18.53
- Multiplier
- 3.23x
- User PnL
- -$5.75
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.63
- Potential profit
- $22.63
- User PnL
- -$5.41
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.62
- Potential profit
- $22.62
- User PnL
- -$14.2
No position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.9%
- Current value
- $5.36
- Potential payout
- $20.75
- Potential profit
- $15.38
- Multiplier
- 3.87x
- User PnL
- -$0
Yes position
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $1.51
- Potential payout
- $20.1
- Potential profit
- $18.6
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.7
Yes position
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $1.88
- Potential payout
- $19.77
- Potential profit
- $17.89
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.95
No position
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.49
- Potential profit
- $19.49
- User PnL
- -$2.56
Yes position
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.12
- Potential payout
- $18
- Potential profit
- $17.89
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$4.76
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.75
- Potential profit
- $17.75
- User PnL
- -$7.04
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.68
- Potential profit
- $17.68
- User PnL
- -$6.34
No position
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Current value
- $11.4
- Potential payout
- $16.65
- Potential profit
- $5.25
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- -$0.51
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.35
- Potential profit
- $16.35
- User PnL
- -$6.3
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.06
- Potential profit
- $16.06
- User PnL
- -$4.27
No position
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.89
- Potential profit
- $15.89
- User PnL
- -$4.04
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $0.22
- Potential payout
- $14.39
- Potential profit
- $14.17
- Multiplier
- 66.67x
- User PnL
- -$3.55
Yes position
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $1.2
- Potential payout
- $14.12
- Potential profit
- $12.92
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$0.32
No position
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $13.52
- Potential profit
- $13.52
- User PnL
- -$4.73
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.36
No position
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.61
No position
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- User PnL
- $13.78
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.84
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.96
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?
Ends Jun 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.36
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.08
No position
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.49
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.33
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.94
No position
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $7.79
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.01
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.86
No position
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.74
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.57
No position
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6
No position
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?
Ends Jun 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.72
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.34
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.25
Y
Yes position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 22%
- Multiplier
- 4.55x
- User PnL
- $3
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.99
Y
Yes position
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.8
No position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.62
No position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.57
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?Yes 22.2% 0.22 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 41% 1.21 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?No 59% 2.56 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?No 60% 0.13 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 51% 0.05 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 51% 0.01 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 90.4% 0.18 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 41% 0.44 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?No 58% 0.13 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?No 55% 0.05 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?No 52% 0.13 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?No 51% 0.12 shares