Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 39.5%
- Current value
- $10.12K
- Potential payout
- $25.63K
- Potential profit
- $15.5K
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- $180.72
Polymarket Trader
apple-pi
0xaf2383b66194112d57ac196b00ab25f78c17aa95
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $76.65K
- Realized PnL
- $64.42K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.6%
- Current value
- $2.4K
- Potential payout
- $15.41K
- Potential profit
- $13.02K
- Multiplier
- 6.43x
- User PnL
- $370.86
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.8%
- Current value
- $490.93
- Potential payout
- $10.23K
- Potential profit
- $9.74K
- Multiplier
- 20.83x
- User PnL
- -$2.2K
Yes position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $8.29K
- Potential payout
- $10.05K
- Potential profit
- $1.76K
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $645.62
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $9.08K
- Potential payout
- $10.03K
- Potential profit
- $952.75
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $162.04
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.4%
- Current value
- $9.56K
- Potential payout
- $10.02K
- Potential profit
- $466.05
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $447.96
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.3%
- Current value
- $7.47K
- Potential payout
- $8.09K
- Potential profit
- $623.24
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$157.63
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $7.1K
- Potential payout
- $7.67K
- Potential profit
- $575.31
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $1.75K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $2.79K
- Potential payout
- $5.02K
- Potential profit
- $2.23K
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- $121.83
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 41.5%
- Current value
- $1.72K
- Potential payout
- $4.16K
- Potential profit
- $2.43K
- Multiplier
- 2.41x
- User PnL
- -$661.39
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.3%
- Current value
- $3.37K
- Potential payout
- $3.42K
- Potential profit
- $58.2
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $291.36
Yes position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $2.79K
- Potential payout
- $3.26K
- Potential profit
- $472.36
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $82.61
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.4%
- Current value
- $2.91K
- Potential payout
- $2.96K
- Potential profit
- $48.82
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $490.33
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?
Ends Sep 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 46%
- Current value
- $1.2K
- Potential payout
- $2.61K
- Potential profit
- $1.41K
- Multiplier
- 2.17x
- User PnL
- -$729.78
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Current value
- $1.18K
- Potential payout
- $2.58K
- Potential profit
- $1.41K
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- -$254.12
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $2.03K
- Potential payout
- $2.49K
- Potential profit
- $460.03
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $186.77
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 38%
- Current value
- $534.91
- Potential payout
- $1.41K
- Potential profit
- $872.75
- Multiplier
- 2.63x
- User PnL
- $235.26
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 32.5%
- Current value
- $437.41
- Potential payout
- $1.35K
- Potential profit
- $908.48
- Multiplier
- 3.08x
- User PnL
- $119.75
No position
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $979.13
- Potential payout
- $1.28K
- Potential profit
- $300.78
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $245.14
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.2%
- Current value
- $110.16
- Potential payout
- $1.2K
- Potential profit
- $1.09K
- Multiplier
- 10.87x
- User PnL
- $1.63
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.2%
- Current value
- $771.43
- Potential payout
- $1.05K
- Potential profit
- $282.44
- Multiplier
- 1.37x
- User PnL
- -$162.79
Yes position
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.5%
- Current value
- $372.3
- Potential payout
- $1.02K
- Potential profit
- $647.7
- Multiplier
- 2.74x
- User PnL
- -$566.23
No position
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $835
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $165
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$11
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.1%
- Current value
- $140.75
- Potential payout
- $823.09
- Potential profit
- $682.34
- Multiplier
- 5.85x
- User PnL
- -$54.12
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.26K
Yes position
Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be ≥2.7%?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.24K
Yes position
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.47K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.13K
Yes position
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.74K
Yes position
US strikes Iraq by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.56K
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.29K
Yes position
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.15K
No position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.87K
No position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.51K
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.5K
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.94K
Yes position
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.83K
No position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.79K
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.76K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.74K
No position
Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.6%?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.72K
Yes position
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.64K
Yes position
GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.63K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $1.57K
Yes position
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.54K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.53K
Y
Yes position
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $1.53K
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.49K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?No 12.2% 5,780.7 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes 40.1% 6,217.98 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No 9.2% 731.4 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?No 14.6% 3,826.95 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?Yes 74% 2,606.36 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Yes 68.7% 891 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes 63.7% 2,481.43 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes 57.8% 3,775.49 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?Yes 59.6% 261.19 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Yes 58.9% 614.8 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Yes 51% 9.78 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?Yes 54% 35 shares