Yes position
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $3.92K
- Potential payout
- $340.98K
- Potential profit
- $337.06K
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- $852.46
Polymarket Trader
fed26
0xaf458bee32b8f1d9ba39ee876f20c7e3ce62ec7d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $281.96K
- Realized PnL
- -$8.56K
- Win rate
- 58.3%
- Open positions
- 12
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.6%
- Current value
- $211.55K
- Potential payout
- $262.63K
- Potential profit
- $51.08K
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $107.78K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $2.57K
- Potential payout
- $105.06K
- Potential profit
- $102.49K
- Multiplier
- 40.82x
- User PnL
- $1.09K
Yes position
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 57%
- Current value
- $13.69K
- Potential payout
- $24.02K
- Potential profit
- $10.33K
- Multiplier
- 1.75x
- User PnL
- $1.48K
No position
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.3%
- Current value
- $18.45K
- Potential payout
- $18.97K
- Potential profit
- $521.77
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $2.74K
No position
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 78%
- Current value
- $10.18K
- Potential payout
- $13.05K
- Potential profit
- $2.87K
- Multiplier
- 1.28x
- User PnL
- $5.12K
No position
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 97.3%
- Current value
- $9.73K
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $270
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $30
No position
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $8.68K
- Potential payout
- $8.7K
- Potential profit
- $17.4
- User PnL
- $1.88K
Yes position
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.9%
- Current value
- $1.28K
- Potential payout
- $3.56K
- Potential profit
- $2.28K
- Multiplier
- 2.79x
- User PnL
- -$161.48
No position
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77%
- Current value
- $1.81K
- Potential payout
- $2.35K
- Potential profit
- $541.02
- Multiplier
- 1.30x
- User PnL
- $638.07
Yes position
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 64.5%
- Current value
- $66.66
- Potential payout
- $103.35
- Potential profit
- $36.69
- Multiplier
- 1.55x
- User PnL
- $6.79
Yes position
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.9%
- Current value
- $34.71
- Potential payout
- $99.47
- Potential profit
- $64.77
- Multiplier
- 2.87x
- User PnL
- $26.85
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.4K
No position
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.12K
Yes position
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 27-February 2?
Ends Feb 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.74K
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.28K
No position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.22K
No position
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $388.24
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $283.41
Yes position
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 31-April 6?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $171.77
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $170.25
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $48
Yes position
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 22%
- Multiplier
- 4.55x
- User PnL
- $35.76
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $18.02
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13
No position
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $5.09
Yes position
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 23%
- Multiplier
- 4.35x
- User PnL
- -$0.68
No position
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 35.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.82x
- User PnL
- -$7.05
Yes position
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$14.9
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$59.28
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$81.05
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$374.56
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.59K
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$6.46K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$8.92K
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$9.94K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31?Yes 57.9% 208.93 shares
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes 65.7% 7.74 shares
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?Yes 61.1% 186.9 shares
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Yes 17% 124.18 shares
- Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?No 57% 8 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 2.1% 344.59 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 2% 500 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 2% 6,646.89 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 2.2% 61,807.96 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 2.6% 58,183.25 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 3% 71,027.75 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 3.2% 5,538.7 shares