Polymarket Trader

0xAF79823C5E8252f91898617d261914F8312e3f77-1753198716975

0xaf79823c5e8252f91898617d261914f8312e3f77

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $53.91
Realized PnL: $22.91
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 17
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 21, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $4.33
Potential payout: $22.22
Potential profit: $17.89
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: $2.33

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 22, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 17%
Current value: $3.4
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $16.6
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: $1.4

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 23, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $3
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $17
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: $1

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 26, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $2.82
Potential payout: $18.22
Potential profit: $15.4
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $1.18

No position

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 88.8%
Current value: $10.55
Potential payout: $11.89
Potential profit: $1.34
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: -$0.45

No position

Will Kawhi play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $10.35
Potential payout: $11.26
Potential profit: $0.91
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.35

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 15, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $1.57
Potential payout: $9.52
Potential profit: $7.95
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$0.43

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 12, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $2.39
Potential payout: $8.7
Potential profit: $6.3
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: $0.39

No position

Starmer out by June 22, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.78
Potential profit: $7.78
User PnL: -$7

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.9
Potential profit: $6.9
User PnL: -$6

Yes position

Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $5.4
Potential payout: $6.1
Potential profit: $0.7
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $0.4

No position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.84
Potential profit: $5.84
User PnL: -$4.96

Yes position

Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 93.9%
Current value: $4.99
Potential payout: $5.32
Potential profit: $0.33
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: -$0.01

No position

Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 98.3%
Current value: $5.1
Potential payout: $5.19
Potential profit: $0.09
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.1

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 11, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.13
Potential profit: $5.13
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.53
Potential profit: $3.53
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Glacier Bancorp (GBCI) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Oct 16, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.23
Potential profit: $3.23
User PnL: -$3

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 3AM ET

Ends Sep 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.53

No position

EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.76

No position

Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.67

No position

MicroStrategy purchases >5000 BTC July 22-28?

Ends Jul 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.41

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.41

No position

Israel strikes Syria by Friday?

Ends Jul 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.33

Yes position

Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?

Ends Oct 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.05

Up position

Solana Up or Down on August 7?

Ends Aug 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.02

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.86

Yes position

Will Exxon Mobil (XOM) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.71

No position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.68

No position

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?

Ends Oct 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.66

No position

Another Israel strike on Yemen by Friday?

Ends Jul 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.63

Yes position

Will Victoria's Secret (VSCO) beat quarterly earnings?

Ends Dec 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.57

No position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026?

Ends Mar 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.53

No position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.53

Yes position

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.53

No position

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.5

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.43

No position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.43

No position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?

Ends Apr 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.43

No position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.42

No position

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.42

No position

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.41

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 26, 2026?

No 9% 18.22 shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 23, 2026?

No 10% 20 shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 22, 2026?

No 10% 20 shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 21, 2026?

No 9% 22.22 shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 15, 2026?

No 21% 9.52 shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 12, 2026?

No 23% 8.7 shares
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 11, 2026?

No 39% 5.13 shares
Will Kawhi play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27?

No 88.8% 11.26 shares
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

No 92.5% 11.89 shares
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

No 95.2% 10.5 shares
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Yes 95% 10.53 shares
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?

No 90% 7.78 shares