Yes position
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 26.5%
- Current value
- $5.89
- Potential payout
- $22.22
- Potential profit
- $16.33
- Multiplier
- 3.77x
- User PnL
- -$0.11
Polymarket Trader
avmaijwe
0xaf96df3e4c75cec13bee8923dadc1c6aff5d9009
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $96.77
- Realized PnL
- $160.04
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 23%
- Current value
- $5.05
- Potential payout
- $21.96
- Potential profit
- $16.91
- Multiplier
- 4.35x
- User PnL
- $0.05
Yes position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $4.9
- Potential payout
- $20.83
- Potential profit
- $15.94
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.1
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.01
- Potential payout
- $18.52
- Potential profit
- $18.51
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$4.99
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $3.05
- Potential payout
- $15.63
- Potential profit
- $12.58
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- $1.8
No position
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 27%
- Current value
- $3.6
- Potential payout
- $13.33
- Potential profit
- $9.73
- Multiplier
- 3.70x
- User PnL
- -$6.4
Yes position
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $4.19
- Potential payout
- $12.5
- Potential profit
- $8.31
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- -$0.81
Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $0.09
- Potential payout
- $11.76
- Potential profit
- $11.68
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$1.91
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.8%
- Current value
- $10.65
- Potential payout
- $11.24
- Potential profit
- $0.59
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $0.65
Yes position
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 46.5%
- Current value
- $5.05
- Potential payout
- $10.87
- Potential profit
- $5.82
- Multiplier
- 2.15x
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
Will the National Union for Democracy and Progress win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?
Ends Dec 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $9.99
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $0.01
Yes position
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.9%
- Current value
- $0.96
- Potential payout
- $8.89
- Potential profit
- $7.92
- Multiplier
- 9.22x
- User PnL
- -$4.04
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $4.63
- Potential payout
- $8.2
- Potential profit
- $3.57
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- -$0.37
Yes position
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 59%
- Current value
- $4.76
- Potential payout
- $8.06
- Potential profit
- $3.31
- Multiplier
- 1.69x
- User PnL
- -$0.24
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $6.6
- Potential payout
- $7.46
- Potential profit
- $0.86
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $1.6
Yes position
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14%
- Current value
- $1
- Potential payout
- $7.14
- Potential profit
- $6.14
- Multiplier
- 7.14x
- User PnL
- -$0
Yes position
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.6%
- Current value
- $0.24
- Potential payout
- $6.67
- Potential profit
- $6.43
- Multiplier
- 27.78x
- User PnL
- -$4.76
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $4.84
- Potential payout
- $6.49
- Potential profit
- $1.66
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- -$0.16
N
No position
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 73%
- Current value
- $4.62
- Potential payout
- $6.33
- Potential profit
- $1.71
- Multiplier
- 1.37x
- User PnL
- -$0.38
Yes position
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.7%
- Current value
- $5.65
- Potential payout
- $5.9
- Potential profit
- $0.26
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.65
No position
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $5.32
- Potential payout
- $5.88
- Potential profit
- $0.56
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $0.32
Yes position
Netanyahu out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.56
- Potential profit
- $5.55
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Anthropic IPO by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $5.04
- Potential payout
- $5.1
- Potential profit
- $0.06
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $0.04
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $0.64
- Potential payout
- $4.76
- Potential profit
- $4.12
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$0.02
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on March 25?
Ends Mar 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.45
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.73
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 29?
Ends Mar 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.55
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.41
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.23
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.94
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.35
No position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 29?
Ends Mar 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.99
Yes position
US strikes Iraq by March 7?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.7
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.48
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.69
No position
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.58
Yes position
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.35
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 41.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.41x
- User PnL
- $2.33
No position
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 27?
Ends Mar 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.23
Colorado Buffaloes position
Portland State Vikings vs. Colorado Buffaloes
Ends Dec 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.8
No position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.69
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.66
No position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 29?
Ends Mar 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.64
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by June 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.41
No position
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.33
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.31
UAB Blazers position
Cleveland State Vikings vs. UAB Blazers
Ends Dec 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.2
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?No 88% 3.41 shares
- Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?Yes 62% 8.06 shares
- GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes 58% 1.72 shares
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?Yes 28% 3.57 shares
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?Yes 84.7% 5.9 shares
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Yes 24% 20.83 shares
- Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?No 79% 6.33 shares
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Yes 22.8% 21.96 shares
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?No 52% 3.85 shares
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?Yes 14% 7.14 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 50% 4 shares
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Yes 40% 12.5 shares