Polymarket Trader

0xafa7...6e67

0xafa7c2a168687bad54a63659a60a0b69661f6e67

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $2K
Realized PnL: $1.32K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $300.48
Potential payout: $339.53
Potential profit: $39.05
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $24.46

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $253.46
Potential payout: $327.04
Potential profit: $73.58
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: -$7.48

No position

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

Ends Aug 20, 2026

Implied probability: 36.5%
Current value: $80.74
Potential payout: $221.21
Potential profit: $140.47
Multiplier: 2.74x
User PnL: -$6.54

No position

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $164.56
Potential payout: $220.89
Potential profit: $56.33
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: $0.54

No position

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 57%
Current value: $124.83
Potential payout: $219.04
Potential profit: $94.21
Multiplier: 1.75x
User PnL: -$15.31

No position

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $131.93
Potential payout: $181.98
Potential profit: $50.04
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: $16.22

No position

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 45%
Current value: $77.52
Potential payout: $172.27
Potential profit: $94.75
Multiplier: 2.22x
User PnL: $9.08

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $138.14
Potential payout: $157.87
Potential profit: $19.73
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $30.54

No position

Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $151.85
Potential profit: $151.85
User PnL: -$94.35

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 80%
Current value: $104.61
Potential payout: $130.76
Potential profit: $26.15
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $17

No position

Trump meets with Putin by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 67.5%
Current value: $87.5
Potential payout: $129.63
Potential profit: $42.13
Multiplier: 1.48x
User PnL: $2.39

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $96.98
Potential payout: $126.78
Potential profit: $29.79
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $9.26

No position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $125.52
Potential profit: $125.52
User PnL: -$32.64

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 61%
Current value: $69.29
Potential payout: $113.59
Potential profit: $44.3
Multiplier: 1.64x
User PnL: $13.46

No position

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $91.5
Potential payout: $103.39
Potential profit: $11.89
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $1.19

No position

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $85.72
Potential payout: $89.8
Potential profit: $4.09
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $2.47

Yes position

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 68%
Current value: $57.54
Potential payout: $84.61
Potential profit: $27.08
Multiplier: 1.47x
User PnL: $3.9

No position

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $75.92
Potential profit: $75.92
User PnL: -$9.11

No position

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $57.19
Potential payout: $63.9
Potential profit: $6.71
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $0.96

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $56.65
Potential profit: $56.65
User PnL: -$33.84

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $54.32
Potential profit: $54.32
User PnL: -$34.79

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $37.51
Potential payout: $43.87
Potential profit: $6.36
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $2.12

No position

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $29.32
Potential payout: $35.75
Potential profit: $6.44
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $0.53

No position

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $11.19
Potential payout: $12.78
Potential profit: $1.6
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $0.58

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $346.78

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $152.02

No position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $123.77

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $104.89

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.46

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.4

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.7

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.36

No position

Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.2

No position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.88

No position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.94

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.98

No position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.08

No position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.93

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.49

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.93

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.8

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.86

No position

Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.52

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.85

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?

Ends Apr 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.05

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.68

Justin Gaethje position

UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.54

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.13

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?

No 50% 39.2 shares
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?

No 79% 21.45 shares
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?

No 84.1% 50.28 shares
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?

No 75% 161.53 shares
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

No 40% 9.9 shares
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

No 40% 16.58 shares
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

No 40% 5.05 shares
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?

No 71% 9.65 shares
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

No 40% 78.43 shares
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

No 93% 24.59 shares
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?

No 69% 23.43 shares
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

No 39% 14.15 shares