Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $192.31
- Potential profit
- $192.31
- User PnL
- -$10
Polymarket Trader
Shining319
0xb0818c856b924358810a436faa5ad8bbf3856f50
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $105.69
- Realized PnL
- $241.35
- Win rate
- 54.2%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.4%
- Current value
- $4.56
- Potential payout
- $190.16
- Potential profit
- $185.6
- Multiplier
- 41.67x
- User PnL
- -$5.44
Yes position
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $27.63
- Potential payout
- $157.9
- Potential profit
- $130.27
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$2.37
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 34%
- Current value
- $40.12
- Potential payout
- $118
- Potential profit
- $77.88
- Multiplier
- 2.94x
- User PnL
- $10.62
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 6%
- Current value
- $6.84
- Potential payout
- $114.94
- Potential profit
- $108.1
- Multiplier
- 16.81x
- User PnL
- -$3.16
Yes position
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.1%
- Current value
- $11.5
- Potential payout
- $114.42
- Potential profit
- $102.93
- Multiplier
- 9.95x
- User PnL
- -$1.43
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $4.45
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $95.55
- Multiplier
- 22.47x
- User PnL
- -$5.55
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.22
- Potential payout
- $87.78
- Potential profit
- $87.56
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$15.58
Yes position
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $6.8
- Potential payout
- $54.41
- Potential profit
- $47.61
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$3.2
Yes position
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.2%
- Current value
- $1.58
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $48.43
- Multiplier
- 31.75x
- User PnL
- -$3.43
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.3%
- Current value
- $1.99
- Potential payout
- $17.65
- Potential profit
- $15.66
- Multiplier
- 8.89x
- User PnL
- -$1.01
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $92.34
No position
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.33
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.89
Yes position
Will Solana dip to $80 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.99
No position
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.4
No position
Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 400.0k by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.08
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- $3.71
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.55
No position
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.27
No position
Will Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $0.77
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.63
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 27?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.4
No position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Solana dip to $70 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.25
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 29%
- Multiplier
- 3.45x
- User PnL
- -$0.34
Yes position
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$1.33
Yes position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$1.34
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 11-17?
Ends May 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$2.06
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.72
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?No 99% 164.18 shares
- Will Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026?No 99.5% 30.92 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?No 97.2% 113.17 shares
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18?No 99.9% 95.1 shares
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes 19% 157.89 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?No 98% 51.02 shares
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Yes 5.3% 256.41 shares
- Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 17% 17.65 shares
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2?Yes 99.2% 35.28 shares
- Will Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026?No 97% 30.93 shares
- Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?No 92% 59.78 shares
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?Yes 34.8% 86.14 shares