Orca1

Implied probability: 19.1%
Current value: $28.58
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $121.43
Multiplier: 5.25x
User PnL: $4.57

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 10.6%
Current value: $15.83
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $134.18
Multiplier: 9.48x
User PnL: -$1.13

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 14.9%
Current value: $22.28
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $127.73
Multiplier: 6.73x
User PnL: $9.23

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.6%
Current value: $8.33
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $141.68
Multiplier: 18.02x
User PnL: -$3.98

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 8.2%
Current value: $12.23
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $137.78
Multiplier: 12.27x
User PnL: -$2.18

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.3%
Current value: $7.88
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $142.13
Multiplier: 19.05x
User PnL: -$0.08

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 13.9%
Current value: $20.25
Potential payout: $146.23
Potential profit: $125.98
Multiplier: 7.22x
User PnL: -$3.14

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $6.46
Potential payout: $97.09
Potential profit: $90.63
Multiplier: 15.04x
User PnL: -$3.54

Yes position

Will Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $32.14
Potential profit: $32.14
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $22.35
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $7.65
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: $4.05

No position

Will Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $24.99
Potential profit: $24.99
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.55
Potential profit: $17.55
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15.46
Potential profit: $15.46
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Croatia be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.53
Potential profit: $11.53
User PnL: -$0.58

No position

Will Malta advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$2.4

Yes position

Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.47
Potential profit: $9.47
User PnL: -$5.45

Yes position

Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.73
Potential profit: $7.73
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.41
Potential profit: $5.41
User PnL: -$2

No position

Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$1.65

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Lithuania advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.3

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.56

Yes position

Will Finland be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.5

Yes position

Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33

No position

Starmer out by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.52

August Holmgren position

Gwangju: August Holmgren vs Yunchaokete Bu

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.25

Aurora position

Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

Ends Apr 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.16

Sentinels position

Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega

Ends Apr 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.16

Eternal Fire position

Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.16

KRÜ Esports position

Valorant: NRG vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega

Ends Apr 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.16

9z Team position

Valorant: 9z Team vs Melser Kindergarten (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: ACE Masters Group A

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.15

Dino Prizmic position

Madrid Open: Ben Shelton vs Dino Prizmic

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.15

GTZ Esports position

LoL: GTZ Esports vs Dream Esports (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.15

Joao Lucas Da Silva position

Tallahassee: Liam Draxl vs Joao Lucas Da Silva

Ends Apr 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.9

Yes position

Will LD Alajuelense vs. Deportivo Saprissa end in a draw?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.52

MOUZ NXT position

Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.9

QUINTESSÊNCIA position

Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs QUINTESSÊNCIA (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Group A

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.9

Rawalpindi Pindiz position

Pakistan Super League: Rawalpindi Pindiz vs Islamabad United

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.89

Leviatán Esports position

Valorant: G2 Esports vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.52

Avalanche position

Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)

Ends Apr 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.51

Under position

Kabbaj vs. Ponchet: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5

Ends May 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.51

Invictus Gaming position

LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.51

Passion Academy position

Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs Sangal ALTERS (BO3) - United21 Group A