554m

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40.78K
Potential profit: $40.78K
User PnL: -$4.88K

No position

Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $15.7K
Potential profit: $15.7K
User PnL: -$32.08

Yes position

Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.28K
Potential profit: $9.28K
User PnL: -$3.89K

Yes position

Will Gold close between $4100 and $4200 at the end of 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.22K
Potential profit: $7.22K
User PnL: -$1.24K

Yes position

Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.59K
Potential profit: $6.59K
User PnL: -$2.5K

Yes position

Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4K
Potential profit: $4K
User PnL: -$2.66K

Yes position

Will Gold close between $4000 and $4100 at the end of 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.67K
Potential profit: $3.67K
User PnL: -$391.25

Yes position

Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.65K
Potential profit: $3.65K
User PnL: -$639.72

Yes position

Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $687.14
Potential payout: $3.63K
Potential profit: $2.94K
Multiplier: 5.28x
User PnL: -$1.98K

Yes position

Based FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.17K
Potential profit: $3.17K
User PnL: -$916.63

Yes position

Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $1.31K
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $690
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $270

Yes position

Based FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.62K
Potential profit: $1.62K
User PnL: -$104.34

Yes position

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.18K
Potential profit: $1.18K
User PnL: -$56.64

No position

Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 91%
Current value: $910
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $90
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $190

Yes position

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $999
Potential profit: $999
User PnL: -$7.76

Yes position

StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $154.55
Potential payout: $858.59
Potential profit: $704.05
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: -$403.54

Yes position

Based FDV above $800M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $745.23
Potential profit: $745.23
User PnL: -$126.69

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,475-$4,600 in January?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $703.85
Potential profit: $703.85
User PnL: -$179.84

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) settle at <$4,350 in January?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $655.91
Potential profit: $655.91
User PnL: -$85.27

Yes position

Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $88.27
Potential payout: $569.49
Potential profit: $481.22
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$219.25

No position

StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $246
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $54
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $123

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on January 19?

Ends Jan 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $299.9
Potential profit: $299.9
User PnL: -$8.79

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$4,725 in January?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $291.5
Potential profit: $291.5
User PnL: -$78.71

Yes position

Will Gold close between $4400 and $4500 at the end of 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $221.16
Potential profit: $221.16
User PnL: -$22.12

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on December 19?

Ends Dec 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.62K

No position

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.59K

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on December 25?

Ends Dec 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.5K

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.18K

No position

Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in December?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $790.32

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on December 20?

Ends Dec 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $771.75

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,725-$4,850 in January?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $725.06

Lakers position

Lakers vs. Jazz

Ends Dec 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $686.53

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down on December 24?

Ends Dec 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $624.79

Yes position

USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $466.4

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on December 18?

Ends Dec 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $456.38

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down on December 17?

Ends Dec 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $374.91

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $275.84

No position

Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $260

No position

EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $176.35

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $115.83

Yes position

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $111.4

No position

Rainbow FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $95

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on January 12?

Ends Jan 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.2

Yes position

Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.99

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.47

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.76

Yes position

Will Gold close between $4300 and $4400 at the end of 2025?