Polymarket Trader

Mr.Frog🐸

0xb1fea3922a1998248cf2ae51f740b9be2bb7423a

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $3.1K
Realized PnL: $40.21K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $501.99
Potential payout: $3.46K
Potential profit: $2.96K
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $55.63

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $3K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$28.5

Yes position

Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $70.5
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $2.93K
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: $34.5

No position

Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 9.3%
Current value: $210.4
Potential payout: $2.27K
Potential profit: $2.06K
Multiplier: 10.81x
User PnL: $90.4

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $210
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.79K
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: $10

Yes position

Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $6.77
Potential payout: $1.93K
Potential profit: $1.93K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$2.22

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 43.6%
Current value: $772.31
Potential payout: $1.77K
Potential profit: $999.04
Multiplier: 2.29x
User PnL: $634.81

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $9.91
Potential payout: $1.52K
Potential profit: $1.51K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$126.6

No position

Will Iran Play in the World Cup?

Ends Aug 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.5K
User PnL: -$31.4

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $35.25
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.46K
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: $2.75

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.3K
Potential profit: $1.3K
User PnL: -$214.99

Yes position

WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 9?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.14K
Potential profit: $1.14K
User PnL: -$60.77

Yes position

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $140.86
Potential payout: $1.13K
Potential profit: $986.05
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$86.45

No position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 80%
Current value: $892.01
Potential payout: $1.12K
Potential profit: $223
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $514.7

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.54
Potential payout: $1.07K
Potential profit: $1.07K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$177.36

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $56.17
Potential payout: $1.03K
Potential profit: $974.5
Multiplier: 18.35x
User PnL: -$123.83

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 17.6%
Current value: $176.08
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $824.39
Multiplier: 5.68x
User PnL: $47.09

Yes position

Starmer out by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$12.87

Yes position

Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $11.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $988.5
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: $1.5

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $993.64
Potential profit: $993.64
User PnL: -$103.65

No position

Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

Ends Aug 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $790.27
Potential profit: $790.27
User PnL: -$222.84

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $752.71
Potential profit: $752.71
User PnL: -$150

No position

Will Team Yandex win BLAST Slam VII?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $610.56
Potential profit: $610.56
User PnL: -$62

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.9
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $599.1
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$6.6

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?

Ends Jun 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.41K

Yes position

US military action against Iran before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.52K

No position

Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.67K

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.51K

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.78K

Yes position

Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.49K

No position

Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.35K

Yes position

Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?

Ends May 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.24K

No position

Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.2K

Yes position

North Korea missile launch by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.1K

No position

Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4?

Ends Jul 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.04K

Yes position

Bitcoin above $95,000 on January 17?

Ends Jan 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.03K

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.02K

Yes position

2025 September second hottest on record?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.01K

No position

Houthi strike on Israel before August?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $976.16

No position

Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10?

Ends Jan 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $960.99

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?

Ends Jun 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $926.68

No position

Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $917.81

No position

Will Sentient launch a token in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $915.36

No position

Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?

Ends Dec 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $871.98

No position

Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $857.23

No position

Another Houthi strike on Israel before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $813.42

Yes position

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $807.33

Yes position

Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $796.84

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30?

Yes 11% 400 shares
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?

Yes 2.1% 113.99 shares
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

No 40.2% 100 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

No 13.8% 174 shares
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

No 6% 300 shares
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?

No 41.7% 167.98 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

No 13.8% 361.17 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

No 10% 500 shares
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Yes 1% 1,000 shares
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Yes 2.5% 1,022 shares
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Yes 16.2% 459.33 shares
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

No 21% 571.36 shares