wildboar08

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $1.3
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $198.7
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: $0.3

Yes position

Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $1.5
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $198.5
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $99.76
Potential payout: $118.06
Potential profit: $18.3
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: -$0.24

Yes position

Revolut IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $6.53
Potential payout: $100.44
Potential profit: $93.91
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$3.47

Yes position

Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 3.4%
Current value: $3.19
Potential payout: $95.24
Potential profit: $92.05
Multiplier: 29.85x
User PnL: -$0.81

Yes position

Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.62
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $82.71
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$0.38

Yes position

Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.43
Potential payout: $66.67
Potential profit: $66.23
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.57

Yes position

Mistral AI IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $9.69
Potential payout: $62.5
Potential profit: $52.81
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$0.31

Yes position

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 24.5%
Current value: $9.59
Potential payout: $39.16
Potential profit: $29.57
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: -$1.41

Yes position

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $3.91
Potential payout: $34.03
Potential profit: $30.11
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$2.09

Yes position

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 31.5%
Current value: $9.84
Potential payout: $31.25
Potential profit: $21.41
Multiplier: 3.17x
User PnL: -$0.16

Yes position

Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.23
Potential payout: $30.43
Potential profit: $30.2
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$0.77

Yes position

Will another AI-generated song reach number 1 on any Billboard chart by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $2.25
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $27.75
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$8.55

Yes position

NATO article 5 before 2027?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $2.25
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $27.75
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$2.85

Yes position

Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 17, 2027

Implied probability: 22%
Current value: $6.18
Potential payout: $28.1
Potential profit: $21.92
Multiplier: 4.55x
User PnL: $1.18

Yes position

Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $5.97
Potential payout: $27.78
Potential profit: $21.81
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: $0.97

Yes position

Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $0.62
Potential payout: $26.32
Potential profit: $25.7
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: -$0.38

Yes position

Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?

Implied probability: 4%
Current value: $1.01
Potential payout: $25.64
Potential profit: $24.63
Multiplier: 25.32x
User PnL: $0.01

No position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $20.57
Potential payout: $22.99
Potential profit: $2.41
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $0.57

Yes position

Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2027

Implied probability: 75%
Current value: $16.85
Potential payout: $22.47
Potential profit: $5.62
Multiplier: 1.33x
User PnL: -$3.15

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 13.3%
Current value: $2.84
Potential payout: $21.37
Potential profit: $18.53
Multiplier: 7.52x
User PnL: -$12.16

Yes position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $1.9
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $18.1
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$2.1

Yes position

Ebola case in the US by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 3.8%
Current value: $0.75
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.25
Multiplier: 26.67x
User PnL: -$4.25

Yes position

Russia coup attempt in 2026?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $1.7
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $18.3
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$0.3

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Yann LeCun leave Meta this year?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.11

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.96

Yes position

Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.51

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.03

Yes position

Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.6

No position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.36

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.87

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.82

No position

Will Keir Starmer say "United Kingdom" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?

Ends Nov 12, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.45

Yes position

Will OpenAI release an open source model before September?

Ends Aug 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.89

Yes position

Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.77

Yes position

Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.2

No position

Will Grok-4 be the top AI before August?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.2

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.06

Yes position

Will Gemini 3.0 be released by December 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.99

No position

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.54

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.5

Yes position

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?

Ends Apr 23, 2027

Implied probability: 99.2%
User PnL: $2.5

Yes position

Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.25

Yes position

Will Tim Cook say "Excited" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.94

Yes position

GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.9

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?