Polymarket Trader

blue-musketeer

0xb26d7a12b543f69c2aa283b557a600215c16b98d

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $906.74
Realized PnL: -$34.34
Win rate: 55.6%
Open positions: 20
Closed positions: 9
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $74.25
Potential payout: $16.5K
Potential profit: $16.43K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$60.74

Yes position

Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $7.5
Potential payout: $15K
Potential profit: $14.99K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$22.5

Yes position

Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $57.06
Potential payout: $12.68K
Potential profit: $12.62K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$42.93

Yes position

Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $149.75
Potential payout: $11.09K
Potential profit: $10.94K
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$157.21

Yes position

Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $84.75
Potential payout: $10.59K
Potential profit: $10.51K
Multiplier: 125.00x
User PnL: $32.52

Yes position

Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $15
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $9.99K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $55
Potential payout: $7.33K
Potential profit: $7.28K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$2.97

Yes position

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $90.83
Potential payout: $6.26K
Potential profit: $6.17K
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$4.1

Yes position

Will Aldo Rebelo finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $7.72
Potential payout: $5.15K
Potential profit: $5.14K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.19

Yes position

Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $2.5
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$7.5

Yes position

Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $30
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $4.97K
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $69.75
Potential payout: $4.5K
Potential profit: $4.43K
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: -$25.2

Yes position

Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $52.44
Potential payout: $4.2K
Potential profit: $4.14K
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$41.38

Yes position

Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $54.05
Potential payout: $4.16K
Potential profit: $4.1K
Multiplier: 76.92x
User PnL: $37.63

Yes position

Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $121.53
Potential payout: $3.28K
Potential profit: $3.16K
Multiplier: 27.03x
User PnL: $103.15

Yes position

Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $22.5
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $2.98K
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$4.5

Yes position

Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.13K
Potential profit: $2.13K
User PnL: -$8.52

Yes position

Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $7.63
Potential payout: $1.17K
Potential profit: $1.17K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$2.62

Yes position

Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?

Ends Aug 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $2.47
Potential payout: $449.66
Potential profit: $447.19
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: $1.12

Yes position

Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting?

Ends Aug 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $2.01
Potential payout: $447.28
Potential profit: $445.27
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: $1.12

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $75.02

Yes position

Will "LA MUDANZA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $59.59

Yes position

Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: $11.53

Yes position

Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: $7.09

Yes position

Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: $4.86

Yes position

Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Juliano Floss win Big Brother Brasil 26?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5.56

Yes position

Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$5.84

Yes position

Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$181.03

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 0.8% 6,250 shares
Will Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 0.7% 1,000 shares
Will Aldo Rebelo finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 0.2% 2,231.61 shares
Will Juliano Floss win Big Brother Brasil 26?

Yes 0.4% 576.13 shares
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 3.5% 4,286 shares
Will Juliano Floss win Big Brother Brasil 26?

Yes 0.2% 1,360 shares
Will Aldo Rebelo finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 0.1% 356.48 shares
Will Geraldo Alckmin finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 0.3% 1,500 shares
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 1.9% 2,491.85 shares
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 1.3% 5,332.97 shares
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 0.2% 3,802.65 shares
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 3.4% 5,000 shares