Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $333.33
- Potential profit
- $333.33
- User PnL
- -$1
Polymarket Trader
Nessiaeas
0xb2b98c7cd3e90a01fd2085f47dfeb60e1d2486b4
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $110.17
- Realized PnL
- $219.82
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $125
- Potential profit
- $125
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 12.2%
- Current value
- $12.87
- Potential payout
- $105.94
- Potential profit
- $93.07
- Multiplier
- 8.23x
- User PnL
- -$5.13
Yes position
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.68
- Potential payout
- $104.83
- Potential profit
- $104.15
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$1.38
Yes position
Will Paige Loud be the Democratic nominee for ME-02?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 24?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $94.55
- Potential profit
- $94.55
- User PnL
- -$1.04
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $12.26
- Potential payout
- $79.1
- Potential profit
- $66.84
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$10.27
Yes position
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship?
Ends Mar 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $1.04
- Potential payout
- $71.43
- Potential profit
- $70.39
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- $0.04
No position
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $68.33
- Potential profit
- $68.33
- User PnL
- -$4.05
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C or higher on June 25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $58.82
- Potential profit
- $58.82
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 9.2%
- Current value
- $5.21
- Potential payout
- $56.58
- Potential profit
- $51.38
- Multiplier
- 10.87x
- User PnL
- -$0.42
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $31.63
- Potential payout
- $56
- Potential profit
- $24.37
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- -$7.29
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $0.26
- Potential payout
- $47.78
- Potential profit
- $47.52
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$2.74
No position
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $47.14
- Potential profit
- $47.14
- User PnL
- -$7.78
Yes position
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 10–15%?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $41.61
- Potential profit
- $41.61
- User PnL
- -$4.47
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 6%
- Current value
- $2.35
- Potential payout
- $39.09
- Potential profit
- $36.75
- Multiplier
- 16.67x
- User PnL
- -$7.15
Y
Yes position
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $38.52
- Potential profit
- $38.52
- User PnL
- -$3.64
N
No position
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $37.69
- Potential profit
- $37.69
- User PnL
- -$4.9
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $33.11
- Potential payout
- $36.59
- Potential profit
- $3.48
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $7.36
Bosnia and Herzegovina position
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $35.71
- Potential profit
- $35.71
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $33.73
- Potential profit
- $33.73
- User PnL
- -$6.87
Yes position
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $10.76
- Potential payout
- $32.11
- Potential profit
- $21.35
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- -$0.8
Yes position
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $30
- User PnL
- -$2.7
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- $23.97
No position
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 24?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $22.7
No position
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.88
Bulls position
Bucks vs. Bulls
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15
Timberwolves position
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.7
Heat position
Rockets vs. Heat
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.02
N
No position
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $10.38
No position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $9.45
Yes position
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.4
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.24
Yes position
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.73
No position
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.7
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.6
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.55
Yes position
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.2
No position
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.65
Yes position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $5.44
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.35
No position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.67
Bulls position
Clippers vs. Bulls
Ends Jan 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.59
Yes position
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.1
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.92
Yes position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.33
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.26
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?No 37% 1.96 shares
- Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by September 30?No 42% 1.4 shares
- Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?No 76.2% 5 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?No 75% 4.99 shares
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?No 73% 5 shares
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes 84% 2 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?Yes 17% 10 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?Yes 22% 9.09 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?Yes 49% 5 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?Yes 20% 5 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?Yes 54% 1.85 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?Yes 48% 5 shares