Polymarket Trader

poolyphemus

0xb2c39f19eb36348c4bf2ddddf977b120d45dbe17

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $13.37
Realized PnL: $13.85
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 21
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will anyone say "Surrender" during House of the Dragon E4 S3?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $1.05
Potential payout: $8.75
Potential profit: $7.7
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 11.8%
Current value: $0.65
Potential payout: $5.49
Potential profit: $4.85
Multiplier: 8.51x
User PnL: -$0.35

No position

UFC: Will Conor McGregor Fight in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $5.26
Potential profit: $5.19
Multiplier: 71.43x
User PnL: -$0.93

No position

World Cup: Scoreless Team?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.26
Potential profit: $5.26
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $1.62
Potential payout: $4.55
Potential profit: $2.94
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: -$0.38

Yes position

Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.13
Potential profit: $3.13
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 67%
Current value: $1.97
Potential payout: $2.94
Potential profit: $0.97
Multiplier: 1.49x
User PnL: $0.97

Yes position

Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.9%
Current value: $0.16
Potential payout: $2.78
Potential profit: $2.61
Multiplier: 16.95x
User PnL: $0.06

No position

Will Trump say "Soaking Wet" in July?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $2.07
Potential payout: $2.7
Potential profit: $0.64
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $1.07

Yes position

Will anyone say "Rick" 20+ times during Rick and Morty E7 S9?

Ends Jul 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.44
Potential profit: $2.44
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Kash Patel out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.38
Potential profit: $2.38
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will anyone say "Kingdom" during House of the Dragon E4 S3?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 52.5%
Current value: $1.19
Potential payout: $2.27
Potential profit: $1.08
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: $0.19

No position

Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by June 15?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.85
Potential profit: $1.85
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.82
Potential profit: $1.82
User PnL: -$1

No position

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 57%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $1.75
Potential profit: $0.75
Multiplier: 1.75x
User PnL: -$0

90k position

Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.75
Potential profit: $1.75
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $1.08
Potential payout: $1.27
Potential profit: $0.18
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.27
Potential profit: $1.27
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $1.06
Potential payout: $1.18
Potential profit: $0.11
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $0.06

Yes position

Will "The Odyssey" make it into the IMDb Top 250?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 44%
Current value: $0.51
Potential payout: $1.15
Potential profit: $0.64
Multiplier: 2.27x
User PnL: -$0.49

No position

Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $0.93
Potential payout: $1.11
Potential profit: $0.18
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: -$0.07

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will "Siri" be said 5+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4?

Ends Mar 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.7

No position

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.56

No position

Will Jules Vaughn die in Euphoria: Season 3?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.08

No position

Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.04

No position

Will Trump say "Epic Fury" or "Midnight Hammer" during Women's History Month event?

Ends Mar 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.04

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 7?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1

Yes position

Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.69

Yes position

Will anyone say "Sorry" during House of the Dragon E3 S3?

Ends Jul 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.54

No position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.5

No position

Will Trump attend his son's wedding?

Ends May 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.41

No position

Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.37

No position

Will Trump visit China by March 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.36

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 6?

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.34

Yes position

Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.32

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by May 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.3

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.25

Yes position

Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.25

No position

Another RFK Jr animal rescue by June 30?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.2

No position

Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.19

No position

Will Elliot die in Euphoria: Season 3?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.18

No position

Megaquake by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.18

No position

Will anyone propose at the Met Gala?

Ends May 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.16

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.16

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will anyone say "Surrender" during House of the Dragon E4 S3?

Yes 11.4% 8.75 shares
Will anyone say "Kingdom" during House of the Dragon E4 S3?

Yes 44% 2.27 shares
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?

No 90% 1.11 shares
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 7?

Yes 50% 2 shares
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 6?

Yes 74.8% 1.34 shares
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Yes 79% 1.27 shares
Will Trump say "Soaking Wet" in July?

No 37% 2.7 shares
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

No 57% 1.75 shares
Empire State couple charged by July 4?

Yes 93% 1.08 shares
Will anyone say "Rick" 20+ times during Rick and Morty E7 S9?

Yes 41% 2.44 shares
Will anyone say "Sorry" during House of the Dragon E3 S3?

Yes 65% 1.54 shares
Will anyone say "Dragon" 20+ times during House of the Dragon E2 S3?

Yes 46% 2.17 shares